Why an effective global warming treaty will not be reached.

• Author: Frodl, Michael G.
• Position: COMMENTARY

At the July G8 summit in L'Aquila, Italy, members agreed to work toward an 80 percent cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Developing nations, however, did not agree to specific reductions. A fair prediction is that neither the United States nor the European Union are going to be able to coax, cajole or coerce China and India into firmly committing to any hard C[O.sub.2] reduction targets.

Global warming is not opposed in principle by China, but its attitude is more like, "Thanks, but we have more important things to worry about right now." The Chinese can always be nudged a bit by taking advantage of their desire to be respected as a major power, but that can only go so far. Without formally opposing the findings of the G8 summit, China sent the clearest message possible about its own priorities. President Hu Jintao rushed home early in order to supervise the repression of the uprising in Xinjiang. The Chinese delegation that remained, joined by the Indian representatives, made it clear that their countries could not endorse the targets adopted by the G8 without some serious quid pro quo's.

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Bottom line, the two biggest economies of the developing world have other more pressing priorities.

For the sake of appearances, China and India will continue to show their commitment to cleaner energy and reducing C[O.sub.2] with token displays for visiting dignitaries. Their official position will continue to be that they will work towards reducing C[O.sub.2], but they will not commit to any large absolute reductions. In fact, both China and India are still trying to argue the unfairness of being targeted on totals while their per capita numbers are even below those of many poor and underdeveloped nations.

The last thing China or India need to see is the cost of theft energy go up. They prefer instead to keep using cheaper, carbon-rich energy. China and India also are opposed to their exports being targeted by the United States because of their refusing to participate in some "Kyoto II" scheme. Trade lawyers are expecting the "mother of all World Trade Organization battles" if the current cap-and-trade legislation in Congress is not stripped of "carbon tariff" language that would make products more expensive if imported from countries that don't regulate carbon.

What are the inducements that India and China are demanding for themselves and the rest of the developing world? There are at least two. First is money--at least...