Who's who in outer space.

• Author: Hertzfeld, Henry R.

National space budgets are not growing rapidly, in part because of changes in the international political and economic environment. No longer is there a space race between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. While it is virtually impossible to value the contributions to space research and development (R&D) of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) today, and the future of their program is not known, it is clear that Russia has turned toward the West and toward selling space hardware and services in commercial markets.

Many countries, convinced that the hallmark of a national space capability is the ability to access space, now are developing launch vehicles and sites and associated support services. This has led, worldwide, to an excess capacity in launch vehicles, a situation unlikely to change because of the prestige and national security aspects nations attach to having domestic, dedicated launch vehicles available.

At the same time, countries are expanding their investments in space telecommunications, remote sensing satellites, ground receiving equipment, and data processing hardware. Scientific research in space still commands a prominent and stable financial position in budgets. The trend toward developing commercial uses of space as well as research into new commercial applications is generating interest and financial commitment among the countries of the world.

Chief among the commercial uses of space are communications satellites. Virtually all nations have space telecommunications technology as participants and members of Intelsat, Inmarsat, and other international space communications consortiums. Many countries or regions also have dedicated satellites for communications purposes. A growing number have developed direct broadcast television. With this space technology, these nations also have purchased or have developed ground receiving equipment. The proliferation of different types of communications services will continue to expand, as will the use of satellites and space to deliver such services.

The political changes of the late 1980s have created a totally new international situation in space. With the U.S. and the Soviet Union no longer vying for space leadership, major manned space initiatives still are exciting ventures, but they will not be in the vanguard of technological and political leadership they came to symbolize during the 1960s and 1970s.

With this new alignment of nations, space leadership has fallen by default upon the U.S. Today, it accounts for roughly 70% of the world's space expenditures. The approximate balance of U.S. and U.S.S.R. space R&D that had existed for more than 30 years has been altered. Thus, changes in the political reasons behind American space expenditures, coupled with a number of concurrent domestic events, have created a new series of challenges and questions for the U.S. Should it continue to invest as much as it has historically in space? Is there a sufficient reason to fund the vast majority of the infrastructure developments in space for the rest of the world?

Space is expensive, and the American economy is in a period of relative stagnation. Government budget deficits are growing. To invest in new programs requires investments so large that even the U.S. is looking to world partners. Economic conditions around the globe are not robust. The cracks in the dam are apparent, and it is quite possible that other nations will follow the lead of the European Space Agency and begin to cut back on their budgets.

The Clinton Administration, set on reducing the budget deficit, will take a hard look at space investments. Large programs such as the space station or space exploration initiatives are most at risk. U.S. decisions about its space program will be made in the light of trends in space programs around the world.

Nations are not abandoning space. Alliances are forming, both with and without the U.S., for launch vehicles, satellite development, and new market opportunities.

Some countries (particularly those in the Pacific Rim) have accumulated large trade surpluses and are looking for new investment opportunities...