While still at war, services brood over 'what's next?'.

• Author: Erwin, Sandra I.
• Position: DEFENSE WATCH

ALBERT EINSTEIN SAID IT'S BETTER to never think of the future because it comes soon enough.

The business of planning for the future indeed can be scary, especially when it comes to predicting when and where the nation will fight the next war.

While most of the Defense Department remains consumed by the conflict in Iraq and officials ponder exit strategies, senior leaders have warned that the military has been so drained by the war that it may not be capable of responding to another major contingency--at least in the short term.

The commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East, Army Gen. John Abizaid, sparked the current round of debate when he suggested that a surge of troops in Iraq would be tough for the Army and Marine Corps as their forces already are stretched too thin.

Incoming Defense Secretary Robert Gates downplayed the issue at his Senate confirmation hearing, citing estimates of 350,000 troops from the active-duty, reserve and National Guard ranks who have yet to see combat. It is premature, he said, to increase the size of the Army and the Marine Corps until they've shown that their current strength is being used to its full extent.

But the question of whether the military would be capable of fighting a new war is more than just about numbers of troops. Army Chief of Staff Gen. Peter Schoomaker told lawmakers that Iraq rotations have sapped the Army's training resources to the point that many non-deployed units remain unprepared for combat. Army Lt. Gen. Douglas Lute, operations director on the Joint Staff, described the current force as being "one fight deep." Speaking to the Association of the U.S. Army, he said that as long as troops remain in Iraq, the Defense Department will have to risk being unprepared to tackle another conflict. An Army brigade today, he said, is either in Iraq or heading to Iraq. "For those who are heading toward Iraq, you're pointed towards Iraq. You're not pointed toward another crisis. You're not pointed toward the unexpected event."

Making a similar argument, Gen. James Conway, commandant of the Marine Corps, said he worries that his troops are becoming a one-dimensional counterinsurgency force. "The Marine Corps over time has become a very counterinsurgency capable force, but we are not providing the nation some of those other things that we should be able to do in virtually any other contingency," he told reporters. "We are not sending battalions, like we used to, for mountain and jungle training...