Which states will legalize pot next? A preview of the marijuana initiatives that voters can expect to see in 2015 and 2016.

• Author: Sullum, Jacob

At the beginning of 2014, when Colorado became the first state to allow the sale of marijuana for recreational use, the whole world was watching. "It was insane," says Toni Fox, owner of Denver's 3D Cannabis Center, where the first sale happened. "On January 1, there were close to 200 reporters here. Controlled chaos. It was just packed with reporters."

But the more successful Colorado's model is and the more imitation it inspires, the less attention it will get. "Colorado is not going to be the top dog for much longer," says Kayvan Khalatbari, co-owner of the Denver Relief dispensary. "I think it's only a matter of time before Colorado really gets overlooked."

Khalatbari predicts that "up to a dozen states" will have legal marijuana by the end of 2016, which may not be far from reality. Last year Alaska, Oregon, and the District of Columbia joined Colorado and Washington, where voters also approved legalization in 2012. Similar ballot initiatives have a decent or better chance of succeeding in at least half a dozen states this year and next. These are the ones to watch:

Ohio

The constitutional amendment sponsored by Responsible Ohio is the one legalization measure that is expected to be on the ballot in 2015 rather than 2016. The Marijuana Legalization Amendment designates 10 sites owned or controlled by its financial supporters--who include Columbus real estate developer Rick Kirk, fashion designer Nanette Lepore, former NBA player Oscar Robertson, and former NFL player Frostee Rucker--as the only places where commercial production will be allowed, at least initially.

That marijuana minyan has been controversial. "How [does] creating a cartel benefit anyone besides the people who profit from it?" asked a member of the audience at a February forum sponsored by the Central Ohio chapter of the National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML). The Cleveland Plain Dealer reported that "the room erupted in applause." Ohioans to End Prohibition, a competing group aiming for the 2016 ballot, calls for "a free market in legal marijuana." Under its measure, the group says, "any adult or corporation will be able to apply for and purchase commercial licenses to grow, manufacture, or sell marijuana and marijuana products."

In February, responding to criticism of its locked-down approach to cannabis cultivation, Responsible Ohio decided to include "regulated and limited home growing" in its initiative. The amended version of the measure allows adults 21 or older to grow up to four flowering plants and possess up to eight ounces at home for personal consumption, provided they obtain state-issued licenses. That change moved the Ohio initiative closer to the laws in the jurisdictions that have legalized marijuana so far: Except for Washington state, they all allow home cultivation. Also like the earlier state initiatives, Ohio's allows adults to possess an ounce or less of marijuana in public. It prohibits consumption in "any public place," which it does not define.

Responsible Ohio spokeswoman Lydia Bolander says the initiative's limit on commercial producers is designed to facilitate regulation and ensure that "those individuals are ready and willing to start production as soon as possible." She adds that there will be many other opportunities for people to make money in the newly legal cannabis industry.The amendment, Bolander says, allows "one retail store per 10,000 residents statewide, which would give us about 1,100 retail stores that could be licensed throughout the state." (By comparison, Washington, with a population about 40 percent smaller than Ohio's, initially planned to license just 352 recreational retailers.) Bolander adds that newcomers are welcome in edible manufacturing, pot testing, and "peripheral businesses in the supply chain."

Local governments also stand to benefit financially from marijuana legalization, since they will get 85 percent of the revenue from the taxes specified in the amendment: 15 percent of gross revenue received by growers and marijuana product manufacturers, plus 5 percent of gross revenue...