What surprises will the rest of 2012 bring?

• Author: Hertz, Noreena
• Position: Worldview - Column

THE ONE PERCENT will not suffer. Despite the worst global economic crisis since World War II, unemployment at highs not seen for decades, and cuts in government spending being increasingly hard felt at the state and local level, those at the top of the pyramid once again will remain relatively unaffected in the coming months.

Chief executives of Fortune 500 companies will continue to see their pay packages go up at faster rates than the values of their firms increase; compensation on Wall Street will continue to tromp pay in other sectors, while the continuation of low interest rates will mean that those who have a mortgage that they can afford to service (and a job) will be, in real terms, better off than pre-crisis.

The combination of more spending money in-pocket and more limited asset classes to invest it in will continue to result in a "flight to luxury" by the one-percenters. This especially will be line in Asia. Expect another healthy year for Cartier and Coach, and do not be surprised if champagne exports continue to rise, bookings at top restaurants remain difficult to get, and the top end of the art market keeps flourishing.

However, also expect the rumblings of dissatisfaction from the masses to get stronger. No, we are not in French Revolution territory, at least not yet, although, as it becomes increasingly clear that we are not all in this together, so will there be an increasing pressure on the rich to take on a larger share of the collective burden.

Despite the continued global slowdown, which usually would lead to a fall in the price of energy, geopolitical disturbances and tensions in oil-producing countries are likely to reach such heights this year that a new spike is likely.

Major oil producers that probably will see a fall in output include Nigeria, where increased sectarian violence coupled with strikes against government reforms is likely to lead to production shutdowns. Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia may have been spared the first wave of the Arab Spring, but are likely to face domestic disturbances in the coming months. Following the U.S. departure in Iraq, sectarian tensions are on the rise, with conflict there now a distinct possibility, too. This would have a significant impact given that Iraq is the third biggest oil supplier in OPEC.

Add to this picture the increasingly worrying Iranian situation and the oil picture becomes even muddier. Given the increasing evidence of Iran's building up of its nuclear...