What Should We Fear Most and What Should We Do About It?

AuthorHenderson, David R.
PositionBRIEFLY NOTED

Some acquaintances recently paddled surfboards and kayaks into the Pacific to disperse a relative's ashes where he loved to surf. During the memorial service, one brother of the deceased expressed concern about the risk from sharks.

The image of an aggressive shark in the deep ocean is graphic and terrifying, but the risk of mundane threats far outweighs the risk from shark attack. The dead man's brother should worry much more about heart disease, which felled his brother, and devote his attention to lowering that and similar risks. There is only so much time and energy; each unit of energy spent on lowering the risk from sharks is one less unit that can be spent on hearts.

What should we fear? What threats are most likely to kill us? Setting aside cataclysmic events such as nuclear wars and planet-altering meteorites, there are some risks that generate a lot of fear but few deaths, such as shark attacks, terrorism, and killings by police. On the other end of the spectrum are everyday risks that kill a large number, such as heart disease and cancer. In between are risks from motor vehicle collisions and the seasonal flu. And this year there is a new risk: COVID-19.

Putting small risks in perspective / Let's start with the risk from our introduction. In 2019, there were two deaths from unprovoked shark attacks in the whole world, though the longer-term average is about four per year. Based on the latter number, the risk to the average person of dying from a shark attack works out to 1 in 2 billion per year. For someone who is in the ocean frequently, that risk is higher. For someone who eschews open waters, the risk is lower.

To put that risk in perspective, there were just over 40,000 motor vehicle deaths in the United States in 2017, a typical year. That works out to 1 death in 8,078 people, or one death per every 80 million miles traveled. So, the annual risk of dying from an unprovoked shark attack equals the risk of driving 0.04 miles--or 217 feet.

What about the risk of terrorism, which has received a lot of attention (and government spending) over the last two decades? During the 22-year period from 1995 to 2016, which includes the 9 / 11 attacks in 2001, there were a total of 3,277 fatalities from terrorism in the United States, according to data from the University of Maryland's National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Response to Terrorism. Using those numbers, the risk of death from terrorism for the average American is...

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