WHAT'S IN STORE FOR N.C.? At this month's round table, experts share their thoughts on the state of North Carolina's economy and what to expect in 2019.

PositionECONOMIC FORECAST ROUND TABLE

HOW ARE GENERAL CONDITIONS IN N.C.?

STECKBECK Overall, things are looking really good. The information, tech and durable-goods sectors are all strong. Utilities are experiencing some of the fastest growth. Finance, agriculture and retail trade are growing more slowly. Those numbers are consistent around the country, other than agriculture, which went up. North Carolina agriculture has actually gone down a little bit in terms of GDP growth. Personal income has been increasing, which we expected. We're still 40th in the nation overall in terms of per capita personal income. That's a little misleading. In North Carolina, 20% of our population is in rural areas. Most of the job growth is in the major metro areas of Raleigh-Durham, Charlotte, Asheville and the Triad. About 80% to 85% of all job growth is in those areas. The bigger areas are doing really well. Raleigh is doing outstanding. Charlotte is doing outstanding. Asheville is really, really good. Durham is actually one of the best as far as the economy goes. Things are not as good in the rural areas. Overall, unemployment is 3.4%. That's down from last year, which is good. We're heading into a lot of uncertainty, though. The value of the dollar has increased 7.2% since last year. Part of that is seeing an increase in interest rates. The trade wars and some of the export sectors are a concern. In North Carolina, 7.2% of GDP is in exports, so this can have an impact. Especially with the exchange rate going up, the dollar becomes stronger, and it's more costly to buy our products. The interest rate is another concern.

NEUHART We do not see a recession this year. We think that that is further down the road, but we could be wrong. There are downside risks. One is China. China is slowing. We cannot ignore that. The Fed is hiking interest rates. They indicated that they would like to hike it two more times in their forecast in 2019. If you look at the future, the market is pricing no hikes in 2019.1 would take the market's side on that. Nonetheless, if we see markets calm, the Fed will likely continue to hike.

Real estate will flatten and probably invert, as well. I don't see a major reason that longer term rates would move sharply higher. It is tighter economic conditions. If the market continues to sell off very hard, you'll incur deferring severely. Commodity prices are falling sharply. The dollar is strengthening dramatically. And finally, trade, while it's hard to find the actual precise economic impact, I think there's a behavioral impact. I can't think of anything that...

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