What makes public employees want to leave their job? A meta‐analysis of turnover intention predictors among public sector employees

• Published date: 01 January 2024
• Author: Hyunkang Hur,Gordon Abner
• Date: 01 January 2024
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/puar.13601

SCHOLARLY TAKES

What makes public employees want to leave their job?

A meta-analysis of turnover intention predictors among

public sector employees

Hyunkang Hur

1

| Gordon Abner

2

1

Department of Public Administration and

Health Management, School of Business, Indiana

University Kokomo, Kokomo, Indiana, USA

2

LBJ School of Public Affairs, University of Texas

at Austin, Austin, Texas, USA

Correspondence

Hyunkang Hur, Department of Public

Administration and Health Management, School

of Business, Indiana University Kokomo,

Kokomo, Indiana, USA.

Email: hyunhur@iu.edu

Abstract

Despite the growing literature that examines the determinants of turnover

intention in the public sector, little effort has been made to systematize the findings

from this scholarship. To address this research gap, this study conducts the first

meta-analysis of the literature on turnover intention among public sector

employees. The meta-analysis includes 249 effect sizes from 59 studies concerning

the relationship between individual demographic variables, work environment

characteristics, job characteristics, HRM practices, work motivation and work atti-

tudes, and factors related to the external environment and turnover intention. It

finds that predictors related to public employees’job involvement, job exhaustion,

job satisfaction, role ambiguity, affective organizational commitment, and partici-

pation in decision making are among the strongest predictors of turnover inten-

tion. In contrast, individual demographic predictors show small or negligible

effects on turnover intention.

Evidence for Practice

•Public employees who are more engaged in work activities, more satisfied with

their work, and more emotionally attached to their organization are less likely to

quit. Therefore, public managers should monitor employees’work-related atti-

tudes through surveys, performance reviews, and informal channels of feedback

and address any deficits that exist.

•Clarity and consistency in terms of work roles and objectives are fundamental to

minimizing turnover. Thus, public managers should make sure that there is a

shared understanding regarding job roles among relevant stakeholders and

ensure that the job roles are clearly spelled-out in the official employee manual

and updated when necessary.

•Public employees are more likely to remain at their workplace when they per-

ceive that they are being treated fairly and are meaningfully involved in

decision-making processes. Therefore, before making decisions that dramatically

affect employees’job duties, performance evaluation, or compensation, man-

agers should gather feedback from employees about whether and potentially

how to proceed. Once a decision has been made, managers should communi-

cate how they incorporated feedback from employees into their decision-

making process.

•Human resource management practices, including diversity management, per-

formance appraisal and feedback, and training and development, can help mini-

mize turnover. Therefore, public agencies would benefit from well-funded

human resource departments that can aid managers in implementing best prac-

tices in regard to diversity management, performance feedback, and training

and development.

Received: 21 February 2022 Revised: 30 November 2022 Accepted: 18 December 2022

DOI: 10.1111/puar.13601

Public Admin Rev. 2024;84:115–142. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/puar © 2023 American Society for Public Administration. 115

INTRODUCTION

Managing human resources successfully is essential to

helping government agencies accomplish their missions

while minimizing turnover. High levels of turnover within

government agencies undermine the quality of services

that citizens receive (An, 2019; Lee, 2018; Moon, 2017;

Wynen et al., 2019). Furthermore, high turnover is expen-

sive for governments due to the costs of recruiting,

selecting, and training new personnel. During the past

two decades, public organizations have encountered diffi-

culties in maintaining public employees. The severity and

prevalence of turnover among organizations have

resulted in increased attention and research. A variety of

theoretical explanations have been offered for why turn-

over intention occurs, and numerous constructs have

been examined as antecedents of turnover intention

(Bertelli, 2006; Cornog, 1957; Feiock & Stream, 1998;

Grissom et al., 2016; Lee et al., 2021; Lewis, 1991; Pitts

et al., 2011). While there is a robust literature that exam-

ines the determinants of turnover intention in the public

sector, little effort has been made to systematically inves-

tigate and integrate the findings of such scholarship. Our

public administration scholar’s understanding is still

based on—and consequently limited by—a dispersed

collection of studies varying in terms of methodology and

often reflecting inconsistent findings. To address this

research gap, this study conducts a meta-analysis of the

existing literature on the turnover intentions of public

sector employees.

This paper employs a meta-analysis of the predictors of

turnover intention in the public sector to further analyze

and integrate the varied findings within the literature, to

compare effect sizes among the determinants, and to over-

come the shortcomings associated with individual studies,

such as “small sample sizes, selection biases, error of mea-

surement, and reporting errors”(Kim & Kao, 2014, 215).

While prior meta-analyses of turnover exist, they focus on

turnover itself rather than turnover intention (Cotton &

Tuttle, 1986; Griffeth et al., 2000;Hom&Griffeth,1995),

specific occupations (Mor Barak, Nissly, and Levin, 2001;

Kim & Kao, 2014;Yin&Yang,2002), specific industries

(Matz et al., 2014), or examine a limited set of determinants

(Ozkan et al., 2020; Podsakoff et al., 2007;Tettand

Meyer, 1993;Zimmerman&Darnold,200 9). As a conse-

quence, this study contributes to existing research by con-

ducting the most comprehensive meta-analysis of the

determinants of turnover intention across the generic and

public management literature.

This study seeks to improve our understanding of

turnover intention among public sector employees by

conducting a meta-analysis of the existing literature. More

specifically, the goals of this study were to: (1) comprehen-

sively search, review, and summarize the empirical

research on the determinants of turnover intention

among public employees; and (2) utilize meta-analytic

techniques to examine the relationship between turnover

intention and key determinants among public sector

employees. The public sector attracts workers with higher

levels of pro-social or public service motivation than the

private sector and is also characterized by greater levels

of rules and regulations for hiring, due process, firing, pro-

motion, and pay raises. Therefore, in future research,

when scholars of generic management conduct a com-

prehensive meta-analysis of the determinants of turnover

intention, the findings from that study can be compared

to the findings from this one to identify whether sectoral

differences exist across a range of determinants. Thus, this

study builds upon what we already know from the exist-

ing literature on turnover intention, investigates a

broader range of determinants, and provides avenues for

future research regarding sectoral differences.

This article is organized into four sections. First, the lit-

erature review identifies relevant theories and previous

empirical findings. The next sections explain the meta-

analytic research methodology and present the results.

We then conclude with a discussion of the results, impli-

cations for literature, practice, and recommendations for

future research.

Literature review

Turnover intention refers to a “conscious and deliberate

willfulness to leave”one’s organization (Matz et al., 2014,

234). Turnover intention is typically measured in one of

three ways: (1) the respondent’s expectation to stay or

leave their organization, also known as withdrawal cogni-

tions, (2) the respondent’s job search behaviors, also

known as withdrawal behaviors, (3) or a combination of

the two.

Scholars have drawn upon numerous theories to

explain turnover intention (Ngo-Henha, 2018). Examples of

such theories include March and Simon’s two-factor theory

(March & Simon, 1958), the theories of exit, voice, and loy-

alty (Lee & Whitford, 200 8), goal setting theory (Locke &

Latham, 1990), Social Exchange Theory (SET) (Ertas, 2019),

public service motivation theory (Campbell & Im, 2016),

the theory of planned behavior (Van Breukelen & van der

Vlist, 2004), and the Steers and Mowday Model (Steers &

Mowday, 1981). Most of these theories are middle-range

theories, meaning they are “concrete enough to generate

testable hypotheses,”and they focus on particular organi-

zational characteristics, job characteristics, factors related

to the external environment, and/or normative pressures

that are theorized to affect the desirability to stay (Abner

et al., 2017, p. 141).

By contrast, three of the theories are open-ended and

do not focus on particular factors that affect the desirabil-

ity to stay. These include the theory of exit, voice, and loy-

alty, SET, and the Steers Mowday Model. The first of these

theories argues that the “likelihood of exit depends on

the access to mechanisms that support exercising voice

or that enhance…loyalty”(Lee & Whitford, 2008, 649).

116 WHAT MAKES PUBLIC EMPLOYEES WANT TO LEAVE THEIR JOB?