What does the future hold for the Russian military?

• Author: Nathan, James A.

Much of the former Soviet army remains armed and desperate, without a role in the post-Cold War climate.

The Russian General Staff has taken a sudden interest in human rights, complaining of the "apartheid-like" treatment accorded the Russian-speaking civilians and soliders in the newly independent Baltic states - Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania. More than a year after the Baltic states proclaimed their independence, they find themselves still occupied and under threat by the Russian military. Since they were annexed a half-century ago, several million Russians have come to live in the Baltics and some 130,000 Russian soldiers still are billeted there. A draft statement of Russia's military doctrine warns that the "violation of civil rights . . . of persons identifying themselves ethnically and culturally with Russia in the former Soviet republics may become a serious source of conflict." In case of disturbances in the Baltics, Russian generals have issued orders to shoot to kill.

This interest of the Russian military in "the nationality problem" is a terrifying echo of the Serbian Army's claim that it had the "obligation" to protect the "rights" of Serbian minorities in Bosnia and Croatia, or anywhere else in what was then Yugoslavia. Everywhere in the former Soviet Union - from Lithuania to Siberia, and Estonia to Kyrgizia - Russians are a sizable minority. The Russian military's new doctrine is but a prescription for a reassertion of Russian imperialism and an excuse for claiming resources. The Yeltsin government can wheedle, cajole, and promise, but unless the concept of free markets and democracy yields something tangible for the forlorn pensioners and workers of the former Soviet Union, his support could evaporate in a puff of failed expectations. An army's commitment to firm leadership then would become as welcome as a desert rain. Isvestia reported on July 27, 1992, the troubling statistic that two-thirds of all Muscovites polled are "nostalgic" for the old U.S.S.R.

As in Yugoslavia, ethnic animus and militarism threaten the ruin of the feeble Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The Russian parliament has threatened Estonia for violating the rights of ethnic Russians. The feud between Ukraine and the Russian Republic, however, holds perhaps the most potential for explosive repercussions since both sides are so well armed. Ukrainians - with the third largest army in Europe - resent the "imperialist" attitude of Russians, while...