A Wave or a Wash? Trump could buoy the GOP if Dems catch a midterm ride.

• Author: Storey, Tim
• Position: ELECTIONS

Donald Trump will not be on the ballot on Nov. 6. Yet the fate of hundreds of competitive legislative races across the country will come down to whether voters approve of the job this unconventional, norm-busting president is doing. If Trump's approval numbers don't improve soon, 2018 will be a good year for Democrats. How good? Only the voters know.

Every two years, roughly 80 percent of all legislative seats are up for grabs. Sometimes the elections to fill them coincide with presidential elections; other times--like this year--we vote at the midterm. Midterm elections in the states are predominantly a referendum on a president's previous two years in office. This year, that is likely to be truer than ever.

Fewer than 20 percent of Americans can name one of their state legislators. That's sad given the critical issues--immigration, sanctuary cities, health care, gun violence, the opioid crisis, crumbling infrastructure, teacher pay and so many more--that legislatures work on year in and year out.

"State legislative elections rarely are a referendum on what state legislators do themselves but instead are dominated by national politics," according to Saint Louis University political scientist Steven Rogers. His research indicates that voters' approval of the president matters three times more than their approval of the legislature.

Even the U.S. economy--at its strongest in decades and likely to remain that way for at least the next four quarters, according to most economists--doesn't appear to be a big factor. In a normal election cycle, a robust economy would bode well for the party holding the White House. Voters do not seem to be considering the economy when evaluating Trump.

Trump is the only president since Gallup began presidential approval polling in the days of Harry Truman who has never had an approval rating over 50 percent. In early September, polling by FiveThirtyEight found his approval rating at 40.3 percent, which is where it has stayed, fluctuating only a few points up or down due in part to his incredibly loyal base of support.

Trump's ratings aren't normal, but neither are these midterms elections. Redistricting looms just over the horizon. Many races for governor are toss-ups, and Democrats are fielding more candidates than at any time in the last 40 years, including record numbers of women.

Whether this year's elections are the most important in a lifetime, as some pundits have posited, is debatable. What's not...