Global warming: unexpected impacts on Montana's economy.

• Author: Furniss, Shannon
• Position: Cover story

Montana's summers will be longer and winters shorter. Fishing season will start earlier. We won't have to shovel driveways or snowplow the roads as often. Early spring blizzards that kill off livestock will happen only once in awhile. In 30 years, when temperatures have risen 2 degrees due to climate changes, Montana will probably be better off than its southern neighbors. In fact, our state may see increased migration trends as people come to Montana to cool off.

"That's an interesting spin on global warming," says Steve Running, a University of Montana climate scientist who is one of a handful of American scientists and the only Montanan asked to author the climate change section of the report on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Published in February, the report examines climate change in North America.

"Montana tends to be kind of a cold place, and it's getting nicer by most people's standards," Running says.

While the idea of warmer weather might be appealing to some, things like drought, water shortages, and increasing wildfires during the summer months are not so desirable.

In a recent roundtable discussion, Steve Running and economists, industry experts, and editors from the Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) and UM's Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research (ITRR) discussed climate changes and warming trends that are occurring in Montana. Industry experts then interpreted what these climate changes might mean for the state's important industries: tourism, forest products, energy, agriculture, and health care. The roundtable included: Steve Running, UM climate scientist; Paul Polzin, BBER director; Norma Nickerson, ITRR director; Charles Keegan and Todd Morgan, director and assistant director of forest products industry research; Pat Barkey, BBER director of health care industry research; Julie Ehlers, BBER marketing directors; and Shannon Furniss, Montana Business Quarterly editor.

After the fact, industry experts contributed additional information, opinions, and speculation for this article. Daphne Herling, director of community relations for BBER and Montana Kids Court, provided valuable information about health-related issues. Vince Smith, a professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics at Montana State University, and Luther Talbert, MSU professor in the Plant Sciences and Plant Pathology Department, provided information for the agriculture section.

Climate Changes

In Montana, the most noticeable signals for climate change include an earlier snow melt, an earlier start to the spring growing season, and a more pronounced mid-summer drought period, Running says.

Thirty years ago, snow melts occurred around the beginning of April. In recent years, they have occurred in mid-March. In 30 years--the time period set for the discussion--snow melts will occur in late February if this trend continues. The growing season currently begins a month earlier than it did 30 years ago, and summers are longer, hotter, and drier with lower river flows and more wildfires. Over the next 30 years, temperatures will be about 2 degrees warmer.

Some climate models suggest that Montana's precipitation will increase from its average of about one inch per month. Increased precipitation will not offset higher temperatures, though, and drought will be based on a hotter, drier climate, Running says. Montana could end up with more seasonality--a little more precipitation in the winter and a little less in the summer.

"In the West, in the warm mountains like the Cascades, they're already seeing a greater percent age of rain than snow in the winter," he says. "For us, that hasn't occurred so much."

Dramatic climate changes are certainly evident in Montana's Glacier National Park (see photos below). The glaciers have receded rapidly since the park's establishment in 1910, primarily due to long-term changes in regional climate. These changes include warming, particularly of daily minimum temperatures, and persistent droughts. Some scientists predict that the glaciers in Glacier National Park will disappear within the next 30 years.

Climate changes are occurring on plains and in mountains--at all elevation levels, Running says. After studying 50-year historical trends for towns on the east and west sides of the state, Running discovered that temperature trends are pretty consistent across the state, and he says he has no reason to expect them to be dramatically different.

So what impact, if any, will these global warming trends have on Montana's basic industries?

Tourism

Around 10 million people visit Montana...