Global warming: an introduction to the state of the science and a survey of some legal responses.

• Author: Graziano, Dominick J.

In 1979, James Speth, a member of the President's Counsel on Environmental Quality (CEQ), while completing a report on probable changes in global population, natural resources, and the environment through the end of the century, was asked by some prominent scientists to raise the profile of "global climate disruption." He was provided a report predicting "a warming that will probably be conspicuous within the next twenty years" and calling for "enlightened policies to manage fossil fuels and emissions." The report's conclusions were affirmed by the National Academy of Scientists' Climate Research Board that warned "a wait and see policy may mean waiting until it is too late." (1)

Despite these "early" warnings, the United States has followed a "wait and see" attitude while numerous studies repeatedly "confirm" what was strongly suspected in the late 1970s. Now, with the science having arrived at a point to support sound policy, the question is what catalyst will spur "enlightened policies" on a federal, or even statewide, level. (2) This article addresses the state of the science on global warming and surveys some legal responses that might ultimately result in governmental action.

The Science of Global Warming--A Brief History

The science of global warming can be traced back as early as 1863, (3) and to human activity as a possible material cause to 1938. (4) There is now little serious doubt that the earth has undergone a measurable warming trend over the last century. (5) The real debate has centered on whether human activity has materially contributed to the increase in global temperature.

Primarily through the study of ice cores, scientists estimate that the concentration of atmospheric C[O.sub.2] was 290 ppm (6) at the beginning of the industrial revolution (circa 1750), 315 ppm in 1960, 350 ppm in 1988, and 370 ppm today. (7) Some leading scientists believe we must prevent atmospheric C[O.sub.2] concentrations from reaching 450 ppm if we are to avoid "catastrophic" global climate impacts. (8) Despite the well documented increase in atmospheric C[O.sub.2] concentration, the debate on the contribution by human activity lingers.

The first "official" acknowledgment linking human activity to global warming, or climate change, (9) occurred in 1980 when the CEQ issued The Global 2000 Report to the President--Entering the Twenty-First Century. (10) The CEQ defined the "climate disruption issue" as: "The concentration of carbon dioxide (C[O.sub.2]) in the atmosphere ... that corresponds closely with the increasing global use of fossil fuels ... Atmospheric C[O.sub.2] ... absorbs heat radiation from the earth's surface, trapping it and preventing it from dissipating into space. As the concentration of C[O.sub.2] in the atmosphere increases, more of the earth's radiation heat is trapped." (11)

When the CEQ was first presented the issue in 1979, the Carter administration "responded by asking the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) to assess the scientific basis for concerns about man-made climate change." (12) The NAS issued a report reaffirming earlier reports that the rise in C[O.sub.2] concentrations was likely being caused by human activity. (13) Over the next 20 years, numerous scientific reports would "reaffirm" this conclusion, but skeptics remain. (14) Apparently not convinced by another NAS report issued in 2001 reaffirming previous reports, (15) the Bush administration appointed its own group of policymakers and scientists to study the issue. (16) Not surprisingly (at least to scientists), President Bush's panel concluded the scientific evidence supporting global warming can only be explained by the contribution of "anthropogenic forces." (17)

The majority of scientists now accept that human activity is the primary cause of increased atmospheric C[O.sub.2]. (18) In recent years, reports by the Pew Center on Global Climate Change (19) and the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (20) have consistently found that global warming is the result of human activity. Scientists predict global warming will manifest itself with rising sea levels, a complete loss of arctic ice, and the material loss of plant and animal life. (21) Moreover, global warming's effects are becoming observable within the United States. (22)

Possible Impacts on Florida

Global warming's environmental impacts may be especially significant for Florida. Florida's economy is driven by tourism and agriculture, and global warming takes dead aim at both. Florida's coastline and beaches draw millions of visitors annually, and its agricultural industry contributes significantly to the state's economy. (23) Global warming's attendant sea level rise and weather pattern changes could have devastating effects on Florida. Simulation models show sea levels rising around the Florida coast by more than one-half meter over the next century, potentially inundating some 4,000 square kilometers of Florida. (24)

According to a report issued by EPA, the "[a]dverse impacts in these areas could include loss of land and structures, loss of wildlife habitat, accelerated coastal erosion, exacerbated flooding and increased vulnerability to storm damage, and...