Warm winter? Don't count on it.

• Position: Weather

The current El Nino pattern will be one of the factors that determines the nature of the coming winter, but the government's weather service is overplaying its effects, maintains Joe Bastardi, chief long-range forecaster at AccuWeather.com, State College, Pa.

Unlike the National Weather Service forecast, Bastardi does not anticipate this winter being warmer than normal across most of the U.S. Overall, he sees a cooler-than-normal winter along the East Coast and eastern Gulf Coast, and a warmer-than-normal winter from the Great Lakes to the Pacific Northwest.

An El Nino--a cyclical occurrence of warmer-than-normal Pacific waters-can have repercussions on worldwide weather patterns, particularly a strong El Nino, which features water temperatures that are significantly warmer over a broad expanse of tropical ocean. However, Bastardi's research points to an El NiRo that will remain at its current weak to moderate level, and may even lose strength as the winter progresses. Because of this, a "typical" El Nino winter--such as the one predicted by the National Weather Service--that features warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the country is not as likely to occur.

One of the factors that Bastardi and his team expect to shape the upcoming season is the formation of a high-pressure area over Greenland or northeastern Canada. This would force Arctic air down into the Northeast. If this occurs as expected, the region could experience severe, prolonged cold--10 days or more of temperatures averaging five-10[degrees]F below normal--during the middle to late winter, most likely in January.

"Signs are pointing to the possibility of a rough conclusion to winter for the Northeast," notes Ken Reeves, director of forecast operations. "Examining past years where we see similar patterns to what we expect this winter bears...