War was a catalyst, but for what?

• Author: Gvosdev, Nikolas
• Position: Middle East Democracy: Who gets the credit? What are the lessons?

Give President Bush credit where it's due: Iraq's January 30th elections could not have taken place without the U.S. military intervention. Filipino-style "people power" would not have brought down Saddam Hussein. Despite decades of wars and sanctions, Hussein was in no danger of being overthrown from within.

And make no mistake, there is a genuine ferment in the region. Images of Iraqis, Palestinians, and Afghans casting ballots, not to mention the "flower revolutions" in the republics of the former Soviet Union that toppled corrupt authoritarian regimes, have been beamed into millions of homes by Al-Jazeera and the other Arab satellite channels--an ironic twist, given how often these networks have been vilified in Washington as little more than propaganda mouthpieces for Hussein and Osama bin Laden. All of this change has gotten people thinking--if Georgians, Ukrainians, and Kyrgyz can press for democracies, why can't Lebanese and Egyptians?

The problem is that, while cheering crowds make for good television footage, they are no substitute for the long, hard work needed to build the institutions that cream and sustain a genuine democracy. Elections are only a starting point.

January 30 was indeed a historic day for Iraqis, but election day will lose its luster if Iraqis fail to see real improvement in their quality of life--their physical safety, in their job opportunities, and in the renovation of the country's infrastructure. Given the difficulties Iraq's assembly has faced in merely forming a provisional government--an easy task compared to the formidable task of reconstructing Iraq itself--the signs are not encouraging.

In recent months, we have begun to treat democracy promotion as a game of coloring in countries on the map--and in which we proclaim victory after a single election is held. Rarely do we return to observe the democratic trajectory after the cameras and NGOs have moved on to the next country.

Remember Serbia's revolution back in 2000--the one that dumped Slobodan Milosevic and became the prototype for subsequent movements elsewhere in eastern Europe? Popular enthusiasm soon turned to disenchantment as promises about reform and development failed to generate prosperity. Of course, Western declarations of support far outpaced the concrete assistance that actually arrived. Moreover, Serbia's democratic politicians were caught between meeting the needs of their constituents and satisfying unpopular demands from the United...