Voting Behavior of Active Duty Military Spouses: Trends in Interest and Participation

• Published date: 01 July 2020
• Author: Eric D. Button,Anne B. Diallo
• Date: 01 July 2020
• DOI: 10.1177/0095327X19901295
• Subject Matter: Articles

Article
Armed Forces & Society
2020, Vol. 46(3) 351-375
Voting Behavior of
ª The Author(s) 2020
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Active Duty Military
DOI: 10.1177/0095327X19901295
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Spouses: Trends in
Interest and Participation
Eric D. Button1
and Anne B. Diallo2
Abstract
Despite the expansion of absentee voting protections as recently as 2016, Service
member spouses have not enjoyed the same level of voting protections as Service
members. Active duty military spouses, uniquely positioned between military service
and civilian life, are arguably as important to the election process as their Service
member counterparts. Thus, we examine the voting behaviors of this underserved and
seldom studied subpopulation. Matsusaka’s information theory–based economic model
of voter turnout provides our framework for identifying determinants that shape the
voting interest and participation of active duty military spouses. We analyze the Federal
Voting Assistance Program’s 2010 Post-Election Voting Survey of Active Duty Military
Spouses utilizing logistic regression models. We found that voting interest and
participation were increased among respondents who planned to vote, received
more election information, voted within the previous 6 years, and who were older;
however, voting interest and participation were not diminished by absentee status.
Keywords
military spouse, absentee ballot, Federal Voting Assistance Program, Matsusaka’s
information theory, voting interest, voting participation
1 Public Policy PhD Program, Graduate School and International Education, The University of Arkansas,
Fayetteville, AR, USA
2 Department of Political Science, J. William Fulbright College of Arts and Sciences, The University of
Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR, USA
Corresponding Author:
Eric D. Button, Public Policy PhD Program, Graduate School and International Education, The University
of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR 72701, USA.
Email: edbutton@uark.edu

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Armed Forces & Society 46(3)
In a 2011 publication, supported by a coalition of all 15 executive branch depart-
ments and the Environmental Protection Agency, Barack Obama pledged his admin-
istration’s commitment to members of the U.S. Military Services and their families.
The Obama administration not only pledged to review the resources, leadership, and
support necessary for those Service members to accomplish their mission and come
home safely, it also committed to improve support for military families (Obama,
2011). Michelle Obama, First Lady at the time, offered what could be considered the
mission statement of the administration’s commitment, that “this government-wide
review will bring together the resources of the Federal Government, identify new
opportunities across the public and private sectors, and lay the foundation for a
coordinated approach to supporting and engaging military families for years to
come” (Obama, 2011, p. 1).
In part, this commitment encourages voting interest and participation among
Service members and their families. The commitment is also illustrated in the
1986 Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act, the 2009 Military
Voting Protection Act, the 2010 Military and Overseas Voter Empowerment Act,
and other legislation regarding access to voting for military families. We suggest that
military spouse voting is just as important a concern as Service member voting.
Academic research regarding both Service member voting behaviors and the effec-
tiveness of military voting programs is scarce. Teigen (2006) and Smith (2014) find
that veterans and active duty Service members tend to vote at higher rates than
nonveterans, but that little is known about the voting patterns of military spouses.
There is, however, an inroad to developing a greater understanding of an active duty
military spouse’s voting behavior.
Of all the subpopulations of American voters, why examine military spouses?
First, it is imprudent to assume that active duty military spouses do not want to be
engaged in political activities, and second, to assume that their votes could not affect
election outcomes (Smith, 2014). As of 2017, there were 612,127 active duty mil-
itary spouses (U.S. Department of Defense [DoD], 2017, p. 136), down from
725,877 in 2010 (DoD, 2010, p. 55). Although a small subpopulation of American
voters, active duty military spouses are experienced in both military and civilian
lifestyles and therefore may have a unique political worldview. We suggest that,
especially as elections become more competitive, military spouse voting may be just
as important a concern as the voting behaviors of any other population group.
Further, many active duty military spouses may vote absentee, adding another layer
of complexity for this unique subpopulation.
Additional support for the influence of absentee voters in recent decades has been
documented. First, there have been instances in which absentee voters have tipped
the voting balance away from the Election Day front-runner (Joyce, 2018). For
example, the 1982 California gubernatorial race experienced a reversal of fortunes
for the two leading candidates. Although Tom Bradley led by 20,000 votes on
Election Day, absentee ballots reversed the race, officially giving the victory to
“Duke” Deukmejian (Patterson & Calderia, 1985, p. 766). Second, the 2000

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Button and Diallo
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presidential election results for the state of Florida had immense consequences for
the eventual winner and for the nation. In the state of Florida, George W. Bush
defeated Al Gore by 537 votes; however, post-election research points to the inclu-
sion of 680 absentee ballots that may have violated Florida election law (Imai &
King, 2004, pp. 537–538). Had the absentee votes been counted differently, Gore
could possibly have carried the state of Florida, and thus the presidency. Finally,
several historical American elections have been won by just one vote or by tie-
breaker (Bohrer & Baumann, 2018; Joyce, 2018; Montanaro, 2018). Effectively,
every vote is important, and active duty military spouse votes are no exception.
Not all military spouses are absentee or overseas voters. Some may, due to their
place of residence, be able to vote in person. Nevertheless, being a military spouse
often entails moving and many are temporarily living in jurisdictions that require
their vote be cast by absentee ballot. The Federal Voting Assistance Program
(FVAP) was created to ensure that Service members and their eligible family mem-
bers are aware of their right to vote and have the tools and resources to do so
successfully from anywhere in the world (About FVAP, 2019). The program is
designed to be easy, quick, and intuitive (DoD/Federal Information & News Dis-
patch [FIND], 2010) and includes a 2010 survey of voting behavior among active
duty military spouses. We draw on the 2010 Post-Election Voting Survey of Active
Duty Military Spouses to examine the perceptions of active duty military spouses
concerning their ability to vote when not located in their formal place of residence.
We derive variables from this 2010 FVAP survey to analyze the voting behaviors of
active duty military spouses. Among the questions asked in the survey, an active
duty military spouse’s level of voting interest and voting participation are of primary
interest to this research.
Utilizing the 2010 Post-Election Voting Survey of Active Duty Military
Spouses, we developed two research questions in accordance with Matsusaka’s
(1995) information theory–based economic model of voter turnout. This theory
posits that voters are predisposed to vote even if their preferred candidate is
expected to lose, and when enough information is received regarding the election
and its candidates. We first ask what factors significantly influence an active duty
military spouse’s voting interest? Second, what factors significantly influence an
active duty military spouse’s voting participation? From these research questions,
we derive four hypotheses:
Hypothesis 1: Active duty military spouses will hold greater voting interest
with a more active recent voting history.
Hypothesis 2: The receipt of election information and FVAP/DoD resources
as consumption goods will enhance an active duty military spouse’s likelihood
of voting participation.

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Armed Forces & Society 46(3)
Hypothesis 3: An active duty military spouse’s voting interest will remain
high despite his or her absentee status.
Hypothesis 4: In alignment with the rational voter model, older active duty
military spouses will be more likely to vote than their younger peers.
Following our analyses, we share our findings and offer potential implications
from this research and, lastly, we present our conclusion.
Background and Literature Review
Peer-reviewed literature regarding the voter mobilization of military families and
overseas citizens, including military spouses, is in short supply (Smith, 2014). What
we can say with certainty is that absentee votes have occasionally influenced the
outcomes of elections, whether it be directly (Patterson & Caldeira, 1985; Smith,
2014) or indirectly (Imai & King, 2004). This research seeks to add to the literature
by increasing our understanding of active duty military spouse voting behaviors that
may result in increased rates of voter interest and participation. Theories addressing
how an individual chooses one candidate over another are more readily available
than theories about why a potential voter decides to cast a vote at all. When con-
sidering potential...