One vote away: Republicans could win control of the entire federal government in November. So why won't the Democrats talk about it?

• Author: Confessore, Nicholas
• Position: Cover Story

IF YOU WERE TO CHOOSE A SINGLE RACE that sums up what's at stake this fall, it would have to be the one in South Dakota. To political insiders in Washington, the matchup between Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson and his Republican challenger, Rep. John Thune, is considered this season's defining contest between the two national parties. While Johnson is a protege of Democratic Majority Leader Tom Daschle, Thune is the hand-picked candidate of President George W. Bush. So it's no surprise that Daschle and Bush have gone all out for their respective men, raising gobs of out-of-state money, recruiting talented campaign workers, and extracting promises of aid from friendly special interest groups.

After all, what's at stake isn't just the careers of two able politicians, but the entire balance of power in Washington. The GOP already controls the White House, the Supreme Court, and the House of Representatives. The Democrats control the Senate, but by only one vote. Polls of the handful of competitive Senate races indicate that control of the chamber is a toss-up. And while Democrats are optimistic about retaking the House, Republicans are increasingly sure that their larger war chests and a late-campaign public focus on national security threats will keep them in power. So if Johnson loses, and the Democrats don't win elsewhere, then, for the first time since 1953, the GOP would control both Congress and the White House for at least two years. Throw in the Supreme Court, and Republicans will have won control of the entire federal government for the first time since 1929. With that kind of power, it would take only a few years for the Republican Party to fundamentally reshape American government in ways that can't be undone no matter which party wins in 2004--from more tax cuts that would bankrupt Washington for decades, to a continued unilateralist foreign policy that would wreak further havoc on international institutions, to judicial precedents that would permanently cripple the ability of the federal government to grapple with social and economic problems. By any reasonable measure, the most pivotal issue facing voters in this congressional election is control of Congress itself.

What is surprising is that almost no one is talking about the election this way. These days, Johnson, and Thune spend most of their time arguing over who would be a better defender of ethanol subsidies. The hottest election issue in South Dakota is whether meatpackers should be able to own livestock. When George W. Bush breezed through this otherwise little-noticed state to raise a few hundred thousand dollars for Thune, he stuck to farm aid. The only open fight between Bush and Daschle regarding South Dakota so far was last April, when Bush almost didn't invite Daschle to the opening of a local ethanol plant. Johnson rarely even mentions Washington--except to say that, if elected, he would work closely with President Bush to bring home the bacon for South Dakota.

But Johnson's not alone. Across the country, Democratic politicians don't want to talk about the one thing that every Democratic politician is worrying about. Instead, conventional wisdom holds that "issues"--Social Security, prescription drugs--are the best route to victory. Even this past summer, as metastasizing corporate scandals and Bush's falling poll numbers emboldened the Democrats to launch more attacks on the White House and the GOP, party leaders cautioned that candidates should stick to the policy agenda. Republicans, meanwhile, are smart enough not to draw attention to their potential sweep. As a result, even though most Americans--especially swing voters--strongly prefer divided government, most voters aren't really aware that Republicans are one seat away from controlling all three branches of the federal government for the first time in more than 80 years. It's a mistake that could very well cost the Democrats this election--and much more.

The New Repulicans

To understand why one-party role under the Republicans would be so momentous this time around, it's necessary to understand why it wasn't such a big deal last time. The two years during which GOP President Dwight Eisenhower presided over a Republican Congress were relatively placid. One cause was the political gulf between Eisenhower, a moderate Republican handpicked by the Dewey branch of the party, and his congressional wing, which was controlled by rock-ribbed Taft Republicans. Another was the general passivity of the party--and politics--as a whole. Although congressional Republicans occasionally got out of hand, as they did during Joe McCarthy's inquisition, they had more or less accommodated themselves to the New Deal. Significant policy change, like school desegregation, tended to begin and end in the courts.

Nor was Eisenhower an exception. During the 20th century, more than half of all elections have produced unified government. But those governments have been paralyzed, passive, or moderate as often as they've been productive, active, or radical. Herbert Hoover was a famous do-nothing during the two years his party controlled Congress. Theodore Roosevelt had big plans but was fought constantly by his own Republican Congress, while Harry Truman's accomplishments came in spite of the Southern conservative Democrats who ran Congress during the first four of his six years. And Ronald Reagan had a massive political impact on the country despite never having a Republican majority in the House.

What matters most, it turns out, is less the unity itself than the political temper of the president, the character of the leadership in Congress, and the ideological coherence--or lack thereof--of the party in power. And only twice before in the 20th century have the powers of unified government been yoked to an active, coherent party under a popular president: the first six years of Franklin Roosevelt's presidency, and the first two years of Lyndon B. Johnson's second term. Each president came into office on a landslide that gave the...