Volatile election not fazing defense sector.

• Author: Erwin, Sandra I.
• Position: Defense Watch

* Pundits and professional soothsayers see the presidential election swinging in favor of Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. The Senate remains too close to call as Republicans gear up to defend 24 seats, while Democrats try to hold onto 10 seats and eye a possible path to retake the majority.

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The American public is said to be disappointed and appalled by the tone of the campaign and the daily torrents of personal attacks. Political incivility aside, the defense industry and national security insiders appear relatively content with what they are seeing.

No matter who wins in November, the defense sector can rest assured that the anti-spending wave that swept Washington six years ago is receding faster than anyone had predicted. Both Clinton and Trump want to spend more money, and both candidates appear poised to support a deal to get rid of sequester caps.

"Next year you are going to have folks doing things to increase growth, and that includes defense spending increases," says Steve Bell, senior director of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center.

A slow economic recovery, layoffs in the defense industry, congressional outrage about troop cuts and aging aircraft fleets--all amid a growing recognition that the world is less safe--have shifted the mood in favor of larger military budgets and more spending overall.

Bell, an erstwhile Senate staffer who worked with former Republican Sen. Pete Domenici, fought for 40 years in the political trenches to reduce the federal deficit. In 2012 he served on the Domenici-Rivlin debt-reduction panel.

The winds have changed and the bloom is off the deficit rose, he says. "That's just the truth." The political world has concluded that the deficit no longer moves votes. Bell adds: "I think that things like growth are much more powerful and more motivating than debt."

As of this writing, House, Senate and administration leaders continue to bicker over defense hawks' tactics to boost defense spending by $18 billion in 2017. But that is all for show, as the Pentagon is almost certain to get the additional funding, and nondefense agencies should see a comparable increase, Bell says. "I think that's all baked in the cake no matter who wins the election, who wins the Senate, whether it's Trump or Clinton in the White House."

Defense spending over the past eight years was nearly a trillion dollars less than what the Pentagon had projected before the Budget Control Act. Top defense...