Vision for 2020: Legislative Challenges, Opportunities in New Year.

• Author: Fox, Jason

In preparation for the new year, CalCPA's government relations team looks to forecast the public policy landscape for the year ahead and anticipate challenges and opportunities that could materialize.

While there are many elements to consider and the winds of politics and policy priorities can shift quickly, there are some factors that are sure to shape the policy discussions in 2020.

As a presidential election year, national politics will get a lot of the mainstream attention. However with every Assembly district and the odd-numbered Senate districts up for election, many legislators will have a cautious eye on the campaign trial while they conduct their business in Sacramento. Most political insiders arc not projecting significant changes in the composition of the Legislature, but tight races and an early primary (March 3) can shape the policy priorities legislators engage or avoid.

Legislative races are just one piece of the election year dynamics. Initiatives also can drive the agenda depending on what issues qualify for the 2020 ballot and what issues become the focus of legislative negotiations. While still early, initiative topics could include additional changes to the California Consumer Privacy Act, employee and independent contractor classification rules and new taxes, among other niche issues. Any one of these topics could quickly move from a voter-decided initiative to a hastily negotiated legislative deal.

The health of the economy and its corresponding impact on state finances is another major factor. Most experts project an economic downturn--but when, how much and how widespread remain unclear. What we do know is that when the economy slows, budget challenges arise, as do calls for new revenue streams--either through a new tax placed on the ballot or a legislative effort. The economy may be the X factor that sets the course for the 2020 priorities in Sacramento.

The new year is also the second year of the two-year legislative session, meaning some legislative items that were held over from 2019 could move forward in 2020. This could include proposals to address significant unresolved issues like homelessness, affordable housing and management of utilities and natural disasters. We also expect to see fixes to legislation that was passed in 2019. Major policy changes like the new rules related to employees and independent contractors and consumer privacy laws are likely to see adjustments in 2020. While most agree that fixes...