VIEWPOINT: Space Congestion Threatens To 'Darken Skies'.

AuthorBeyer, Bill
PositionSpace

In 2014, John Charles of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency coined the term the "darkening skies," to highlight the emerging challenge to both national security and commercial interests by the proliferation of satellites, particularly in low-Earth orbit (LEO).

His prediction was that Earth observation satellites would become ubiquitous, presenting an array of potential threats to both mission and infrastructure. However, while those satellites have indeed increased rapidly, it is the mega-array communication satellite constellations which are likely to be the tipping point for this congestion.

Since 2014, there has been a nearly 90 percent increase in the number of satellites in orbit, to a current estimated 2,270. However, this is just the beginning. Space Exploration Technologies, better known as SpaceX, will begin pilot flights of its proposed mega-constellation, Starlink, with the aim of ramping up to 12,000 satellites by the mid-2020s.

Another satellite company, OneWeb, is also planning a mega-constellation of its own, which will combine 1,980 satellites across both LEO and medium-Earth orbit, with 648 set to launch by the end of 2019. To facilitate this, they have stood up a new major manufacturing and assembly facility on Florida's Space Coast. In addition to these, dozens of other companies are planning their own smaller, but still significant constellations for the next five to 10 years.

Stakeholders across the space enterprise need to cooperate to develop a holistic, whole-of-government approach to space, while increasing cooperation at the public-private sector nexus. In particular, the active tracking of space assets and orbital debris is critical for strategic planning and satellite resiliency. To this end, the U.S. government must work with the private sector to improve tracking, asset maneuverability and rapid replacement capability. These advancements will help mitigate collision risk and the potential loss of key national capabilities.

Recently, the current administration has taken crucial steps to this end. First, Vice President Mike Pence's announcement at the 2018 National Space Symposium reflects a key initial acknowledgement of this need by the government. Realigning space traffic management--an inherently civil function--under the Department of Commerce is an important first step to establish a consistent, whole-of-government approach to space alongside civil, defense and intelligence agency partners, while...

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