Republican victory - boon for the states?

• Author: Tubbesing, Carl

THE REPUBLICAN LANDSLIDE BODES WELL FOR STATE SOVEREIGNTY IN SOME POLICY AREAS, NOT SO WELL IN OTHERS.

What Texans can dream, Texans can do!" exulted Governor-elect George W. Bush in the euphoria of his election-night victory speech. His expressive, if somewhat parochial, statement captured what would become one prevailing post-election interpretation of the Republican takeover of the Congress: This stunning message to Washington is triumph for the states.

"Shifting power to the states a top Gingrich goal," trumpeted a USA Today headline in confirmation a few days later. Speaker Newt Gingrich and others argue that the election was a repudiation of a centralized federal government and an endorsement of less government and government closer to voters. Former Education Secretary William Bennett asserts, "We need to take functions away from the federal government and return them to state and local levels."

After all, this rather partisan argument continues, it was the dominant Democratic congressional majority that expanded Medicaid, imposed environmental regulations, entangled highway funds with a host of grant conditions, commandeered state budgets to pay for federal government excesses, and smothered state innovation.

Not surprisingly, the answer to the question, "Republican victory--boon for the states?" is more complex than these enthusiastic, post-election analyses suggest. How the states and their agenda fare in the 104th Congress will depend on several factors: How well House and Senate Republicans work together to resolve differences among themselves; how responsive they are to pleas from Republican and Democratic state legislators and governors; how effectively President Clinton can lead this divided government; and, perhaps most important, what the issue is.

Speaker Gingrich's avowed sympathy for the states will be important. But the Republican Party in Congress, like the Democratic Party, is not monolithic. The House Republican caucus, despite its reputation for conservatism, has a substantial number of moderates. Senate Republicans, led by Majority Leader Bob Dole, may be wary of the "Contract with America" advanced by their House colleagues and have their own approaches and solutions to domestic policy matters.

President Clinton and his congressional Democratic colleagues, though in the minority, will still have considerable influence over legislative outcomes. And the states' success of course will vary considerably from issue to issue. This change in party control may be an advantage on some issues, a disadvantage on others, and a draw on still others.

UNFUNDED MANDATE RELIEF

Topping the states' agenda for 1995 is obtaining relief from unfunded federal mandates. Last year, state legislators and other state and local elected officials were able to advance a bipartisan mandate relief bill through the committee approval stage in both the House and Senate.

Prospects for final passage of similar legislation this year appear bright for several reasons. Last year's bill, originally crafted by Idaho Senator Dirk Kempthorne, a Republican, and Ohio...