Vanishing act.

• Position: Welfare reform has severely hurt poor families in the US

Almost two years into the post-welfare era, we are beginning to get a picture of what is happening to the poor. Many states have seen steep declines in their caseloads. By requiring that everyone on welfare go to work, states from New York to Wisconsin to Utah have purged the rolls.

Since the states are not required to keep track of people once they leave the rolls, the temptation is strong for politicians to simply cut people off and declare victory. Many have announced that they've put an end to the problem of welfare dependency, even as hunger, homelessness, and misery increase.

Recent studies confirm what advocates for the poor suspected--that many of the people dumped from the welfare rolls are not finding jobs that support them. In a large number of cases, the poor are worse off, thanks to welfare reform.

The University of Wisconsin's Employment and Training Institute in Milwaukee discovered that only 34 percent of Milwaukee welfare recipients found full-time jobs after they were kicked off the rolls in 1996. Only one in six of these families had incomes above the poverty level.

In New York, things look even worse. MOST DROPPED FROM WELFARE DON'T GET JOBS, a March headline in The New York Times declared. The Times quoted state government data leaked to the paper showing that only 29 percent of people cut off welfare in New York City in 1996 found full- or part-time jobs. Anyone who managed to earn a mere $100 over a three-month period was counted as employed. Yet around the state only about a third of welfare recipients who left the rolls in 1996 made the cut.

Like most states, New York and Wisconsin are running programs that get people off of welfare but don't get them out of poverty.

Tufts University released a study in February entitled "Are States Improving the Lives of Poor Families?" The answer to that question is a resounding no.

"The majority of states have created welfare programs that ultimately will worsen the economic circumstances of the poor," the study's authors report. Thirty-five states, using the broad discretion given to them under the new federal welfare law, have come up with programs that exacerbate the misery and hopelessness of their poorest citizens, say the researchers at Tufts. On the other side, the study found that fourteen states, led by Vermont, have committed themselves to provide adequate child care, transportation, and job training. These states are giving poor families the tools to improve their lot...