Utilizing Incident-Based Crime Data to Inform Strategic Interventions

Published date01 June 2016
Date01 June 2016
DOI10.1177/1525107116674925
Subject MatterResearch Articles
Research Article
Utilizing Incident-Based
Crime Data to Inform
Strategic Interventions:
A Problem Analysis of
Violence in Michigan
Jason Rydberg
1
, Rebecca Stone
1
, and Edmund F. McGarrell
2
Abstract
A public health approach to violence prevention involves the empirical identification of
groups and communities at the highest risk for violence to inform targeted inter-
ventions. We demonstrate the utility of complete incident-level crime data toward
this end. Data for 32,056 unique incidents involving homicide, aggravated assault, and
robbery were extracted from the 2013 Michigan Incident Crime Reporting system, a
statewide National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) data system. Differ-
ential victimization rates were calculated across demographic subgroups and jur-
isdictions to identify patterns in risk. Two-stage least squares regression models were
estimated to examine correlates of variation in excess risk. Analyses identified young
Black males and females at relatively high risk for violent victimization, and that this
risk was amplified within cities with disproportionately high crime rates. Multivariate
models suggested concentrated disadvantage as the most stable correlate of variation
in excess risk across Michigan cities and towns. The results highlight the importance of
expanding NIBRS adoption and the deployment of focused interventions involving
both short-term enforcement and long-term social reinvestment.
Keywords
NIBRS, violent crime, public health approach, victimization risk
1
School of Criminology and Justice Studies, University of Massachusetts Lowell, Lowell, MA, USA
2
School of Criminal Justice, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA
Corresponding Author:
Jason Rydberg, School of Criminology and Justice Studies, University of Massachusetts Lowell, Health and
Social Sciences Building 495, 113 Wilder Street, Lowell, MA 01854, USA.
Email: jason_rydberg@uml.edu
Justice Research and Policy
2016, Vol. 17(1) 3-27
ªThe Author(s) 2016
Reprints and permission:
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DOI: 10.1177/1525107116674925
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Following a historic peak in violence in the early 1990s, national rates of victimization
for homicides, aggravated assaults, and robberies have demonstrated steady decline
(Regoeczi, Banks, Planty, Langto n, & Warner, 2014; Truman & Langto n, 2014).
Despite the unprecedented drop in violence, the rate of violent victimization in the
United States remains high, particularly relative to other industrialized democracies
(United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, 2014). More recently, declining trends in
violence have generally slowed and even reversed in individual years, as the Uniform
Crime Report (UCR) violent crime rate failed to decline between 2011 and 2012, and
the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) observed increases in violent vic-
timization rates between 2010 and 2011 (19.3–22.6 per 100 k, 17.1%) and from 2011
to 2012 (22.6–26.1, 15.5%; Truman & Langton, 2014). These general trends in vio-
lence obscure variation in the risk of violent victimization among particular subgroups
and geographic areas. Homicide remains a leading cause of death among Black men
aged 15–24 (Centers for Disease Control, 2014), and research evidence suggests that
violent crime—particularly firearm violence—is strongly concentrated within rela-
tively small geographic areas, ranging from counties, to communities, to individual
street segments (Braga, Papachristos, & Hureau, 2010; Cook & Laub, 2002; Messner
et al., 1999; Weisburd, Groff, & Yang, 2012).
Determining how to allocate scarce resources in the face of th ese trends is an
important issue for law enforcement agencies. Because police activities extend
beyond law enforcement (Walker, 1977; Wilson, 1978), agencies are required to
allocate resources among competing demands (Benson, 2010; Benson, Rasmussen,
& Kim, 1998), requiring the identification of strategic priorities for enforcement and
intervention in order to maximize effectiveness. This is very much the case for law
enforcement agencies in Michigan, where cities are experiencing declining levels of
sworn personnel despite relatively high and stable rates of violence, resu lting in
local intervention from county, state, and federal agencies. Overall, between 2002
and 2012, the number of sworn officers across the state decreased by 19%, while the
violent crime rate decreased by 16%.
1
However, the number of officers in Detroit
decreased by 28%while violence remained stable (2%increase), and the police
force in Flint dropped by 41%while the violent crime rate doubled (101%). These
trends highlight the necessity for the strategic deployment of resources toward
addressing violence.
Criminal justice block grants, such as the Byrne Criminal Justice Innovation Pro-
gram, have been forwarded as a means to build the capacity of local criminal justice
agencies in the face of high rates of violence but declining resources. Rather than
taking sweeping approaches, these programs have forwarded utilizing data analysis to
identify strategic priorities for intervention (Griffith, 2014). This framework shares
conceptual similarities with a public health approach to violence prevention, which
deploys the use of systematic data analysis to identify patterns in risk for violent
victimization and favors multidisciplinary collaboration in the response to the under-
lying causes of violence problems (Braga & Weisburd, 2015; Institute of Medicine &
National Research Council, 2013). Yet, the means by which agencies identify and
define patterns in risk of violent victimization remains underdeveloped (Braga,
4Justice Research and Policy 17(1)

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