Utah 2050: Utah's Long-Term Demographic and Economic Projections Summary, July 2017.

• Author: Gochnour, Natalie
• Position: UTAH 2050

This year will be an exciting time for Utah commercial real estate. The economy continues to perform well and many positive investment opportunities exist. Now is a great time to not only seize the present, but take stock of the future. Utah is growing and changing. It's not your grandmother's Utah anymore. The population is aging, household composition is changing, fertility is declining, and new growth patterns are emerging, even as some old ones remain.

I highlighted these trends and others in the keynote address at the 2018 NAIOP Commercial Real Estate Symposium. Here is a summary of the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute's official population projections, I hope they will help you make INFORMED DECISIONS[TM] in the year to come and keep Utah prosperous over the long term.

Background

The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute prepares long-term demographic and economic projections to support informed decision making in the state. The Utah Legislature funds this research, which is done in collaboration with the Governor's Office of Management and Budget, the Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst, the Utah Association of Governments, and other research entities. These 50-year projections indicate continued population growth and illuminate a range of future dynamics and structural shifts for Utah. An initial set of products is available online at gardner.utah.edu. Additional research briefs, fact sheets, web-enabled visualizations, and other products will be produced in the coming year.

Population

* Utah's population is projected to increase from approximately 3 million in 2015 to 5.8 million in 2065. This represents an increase of 2.8 million people with an annual average rate of change of 1.3 percent.

* The Utah population reached 3 million in 2015. Utah is projected to reach 4 million in 2032 (17 years after 2015), 5 million in 2050 (18 years after 2032), and 5.8 million in 2065.

* Though growth rates are projected to decelerate over the next 50 years, they are also projected to exceed national growth rates. Utah's growth in each decade ranges from 9.7 percent (20502060) to 16.7 percent growth (2010-2020). The national range is 4.4 percent (2050-2060) to 7.5 percent (2010-2020).

Component of Population Change

* Natural increase (births minus deaths) is projected to remain positive and account for two-thirds of the cumulative population increase to 2065. Utah's total fertility rate (average number of children born to a Utah woman in her...