Using a Rural Index to Assess Crime Risk and Crime Prevention Behavior Across the Urban–Rural Continuum: A Japanese Case Study

• Author: Takahito Shimada,Ai Suzuki
• DOI: 10.1177/10575677211039998
• Published date: 01 December 2021
• Date: 01 December 2021

Using a Rural Index to Assess

Crime Risk and Crime

Prevention Behavior Across the

Urban–Rural Continuum: A

Japanese Case Study

Takahito Shimada

1

and Ai Suzuki

2

Abstract

The study proposes a new method of crime analysis combining data from multiplesecondary data

sources (census, open crime data, and socialsurvey) to assess the risk ofvictimization and crime

prevention behavior in resource-limited settings. Principal component analysis was performed on

municipal-level census data (n=1,883) to generate a rural index that represents the ecological char-

acteristics of each municipality across the urban–rural continuum. Multilevel logistic analyses were

then applied to crime incident data (n=207,771) to assess the municipal-level effects on victims’use

of locks in motor vehicle and bicycle thefts. A linear pattern of victimization was found for bicycle

theft (the risk was about one-thirtieth in the most rural municipalities than that in the most urban

municipalities), while the pattern found was nonlinear for motor vehicle thefts. The analysis also

revealed that victims in rural areas were less likely to have locked their vehicles before they

were stolen than those living in urban areas. Using the rural index developed in this study,

police forces can have a better understanding of crime problems in their jurisdiction across the

urban–rural continuum. The study discusses the implications of the results for crime prevention

and problem-solving policymaking in the urban–rural continuum.

Keywords

rural index, rural areas, factorial ecology, multilevel analysis, prevention behavior, vehicle theft,

bicycle theft

Introduction

Investigating patterns of crime victimization across areas is important not only for understanding

the determinants of crime but also for the development of crime prevention policies. Although many

1

Crime Prevention Section, Department of Criminology and Behavioural Sciences, National Research Instituteof Police

Science, Kashiwa, Japan

2

University College London, London, UK

Corresponding Author:

Takahito Shimada, Crime Prevention Section, Department of Criminology and Behavioural Sciences, National Research

Institute of Police Science, Kashiwa, Japan.

Email: takajin@nrips.go.jp

Article

International Criminal Justice Review

2021, Vol. 31(4) 420-437

© 2021 Georgia State University

Article reuse guidelines:

sagepub.com/journals-permissions

DOI: 10.1177/10575677211039998

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studies have provided insights into crime victimization in nonurban settings (Giblin et al., 2012;

Jobes et al., 2004; Spano & Nagy, 2005), they failed in distinguishing the terms “urban”and

“rural”so that the two can empirically be differentiated. Therefore, the notion of rural–urban con-

tinuum can be useful in this context because it takes distance from the dichotomy of urban and

rural and offers instead a scale representing a rich variety of environments (Planning Tank,

2017). We believe that the term urban–rural continuum is especially important in Japan

because the country has experienced both population concentration in metropolitan areas and

depopulation in rural areas.

Two issues are raised regarding public safety in rural areas. First, rural municipalities have limited

resources available for crime prevention interventions. In the United States and New Zealand,

research shows that the police in rural municipalities are underresourced, especially in terms of per-

sonnel (Buttle et al., 2010). In Japan, Takahashi (2016) argues that rural areas consist of an ageing

population which exacerbates the problem of lack of available workforce and resources to undertake

community policing. Therefore, it is necessary to consider how standardized data, such as open crime

data and the census, can be utilized in crime prevention initiatives in resource-limited municipalities.

Second, due to poor public transport, people in rural areas rely on vehicles more than in urban areas.

In Japan, 46.5% of the population uses cars to commute, although this percentage varies from pre-

fecture to prefecture (9.4%–77.6%) (Statistics Bureau of Japan, 2010). In the most remote munici-

palities where railroad secondary transportation is underdeveloped, bicycles are an important

means of transportation for commuters who do not have a driver’s license. It is therefore essential

to consider factors related to the risk of vehicle-related crimes, especially in the context of the

urban–rural continuum.

The present study explores ways to assess the risk of motor vehicle (car and motorcycle) and

bicycle theft across the urban–rural continuum as well as their prevention behavior for these partic-

ular offences. We first generate a composite index of the rurality of municipalities using census data

—a rural index. Using crime data and social survey data, we then discuss variations in both the risk of

motor vehicle and bicycle theft and behavior to prevent these crimes across Japan.

Theoretical Background

Theories of Crime and Crime Prevention

Since rural area policing has received less attention from researchers (Mawby, 2004; Schafer

et al., 2009), many crime prevention measures have been adopted from the policing experiences

in urban areas (Buttle et al., 2010). These urban-based policies are sometimes considered equally

compatible with the rural context (Schafer et al., 2009). However, since policing in rural areas can

be quite different from that in metropolitan areas due to their different geographical characteristics

and the limited number of police officers (Buttle et al., 2010), rural municipalities must plan and

implement crime prevention initiatives which fit their contexts.

Problem-oriented policing (POP), a type of policing in which a wide variety of countermeasures

are introduced in a narrowly targeted manner (Clarke & Eck, 2003) has been implemented in suburbs

and rural settings (Carson & Wellman, 2018). Japan has been using POP since early 2010 for training

its police officers in crime prevention in all prefectural police headquarters, including rural areas

(Shimada et al., 2015).

In POP, routine activities and prevention behavior are considered important to solve problems.

Routine activity theory (RAT) suggested by Cohen and Felson (1979) argues that a crime occurs

when three elements converge in time and space: motivated offenders, suitable targets, and the

absence of capable guardians. Based on the RAT framework, it can be argued that crime prevention

behavior reduce crime opportunities for both motivated offenders and suitable targets. In the United

Shimada and Suzuki421