Upward mobility implications on the aspirant middle class in emerging economies

• Published date: 01 November 2023
• Author: Tinashe Mushayanyama,Margaret Chitiga‐Mabugu,Adrino Mazenda,Mary S. Mangai
• Date: 01 November 2023
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2865

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Upward mobility implications on the aspirant middle class

in emerging economies

Tinashe Mushayanyama | Margaret Chitiga-Mabugu | Adrino Mazenda |

Mary S. Mangai

School of Public Management and

Administration, University of Pretoria, Pretoria,

South Africa

Correspondence

Tinashe Mushayanyama, School of Public

Management and Administration, University of

Pretoria, P. Bag x28, Hatfield, Pretoria,

South Africa.

Email: tinashe95@gmail.com

This article unearths the salient factors that trap the aspiring middle class in their pro-

gression towards a stable middle class in the City of Johannesburg, South Africa. The

study utilises a quantitative case study design, drawing on a sample of 449 aspirants

and 578 middle-class heads of households from the 2021 Gauteng City-Region

Observatory Quality of Life Survey. A binary logistic regression model was used to

analyse these salient factors (key determinants) and their impact on the social mobil-

ity of the aspirant middle class. Findings reveal a significant relationship between

social mobility and education, racial inequality, asset ownership, access to economic

opportunities and proximity to amenities. We suggest local government policies that

positively influence the conditions of these determinants for sustained mobility of

the aspirant middle class over time.

KEYWORDS

aspirant, City of Johannesburg, logistic regression, middle class, South Africa,upward mobility

1|INTRODUCTION

The rise of the middle class has been an important global matter,

especially in emergi ng democracies like South Africa. The growt h of

the middle class is critical for advancing inclusion and stability, the

development of the economy, poverty reduction and better gover-

nance, particularly in developing countries where the majority of the

poor are mostly exclud ed (Kiogora, 2018;SandhyaKrishnan&Hate-

kar, 2017). However, despit e receiving public se rvices and social

welfare transfers , many South African s are still unable to mo ve up

the social ladder into a s table middle class (Sc hotte et al., 2018). In

addition, the UNDP South Africa model (United Nations Develop-

ment Programme, 2020) prediction shows that 34% of middle-class

households will fall into the category of vulnerable class households,

with about 32 million (34%) o f the population predi cted to sink into

poverty. These house holds have a predicte d per capita expenditu re

just above the Rands (1138) Upper Bound Poverty Line. While these

households are not poor, the risk of falling into poverty triples com-

pared to the established middle-class households (United Nations

Development Program me, 2020). Most of these individuals may

have managed to transcend poverty but still find themselves unable

to progress into a stable middle class. This is partly due to policies

that target poor households and ignore households above the pov-

erty line. Consequently, there is prevalence of the aspirant middle

class. The aspirant mi ddle class is now a growing cl ass in metropoli-

tan areas. It comprise s individuals who earn a higher income than

the indigent thresholds, yet their income is too low to afford the

middle-class lifes tyle (Birdsall et al ., 2014; Kiogora, 2018;

Shimeles & Ncube, 2015; Visag ie, 2015). In this article, aspirants or

‘aspirant middle class ’are defined as individuals at risk of transcend-

ing poverty because of economic shoc ks or natural disast ers. For

example, an economic shock could occur if a household member falls

Received: 11 November 2021 Revised: 6 October 2022 Accepted: 20 April 2023

DOI: 10.1002/pa.2865

This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any

medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.

© 2023 The Authors. Journal of Public Affairs published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

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https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2865