Upstream downstream divergence and hydro‐socioeconomic distress in South Asia

• Published date: 01 May 2021
• Author: Md. Arfanuzzaman
• Date: 01 May 2021
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1002/wfp2.12022

World Food Policy. 2021;7:41–61. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/wfp2

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41

© 2020 Policy Studies Organization

Received: 24 August 2020

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Revised: 22 October 2020

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Accepted: 12 November 2020

DOI: 10.1002/wfp2.12022

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Upstream downstream divergence and

hydro-socioeconomic distress in South Asia

Md.Arfanuzzaman

Food and Agriculture Organization of the

United Nations, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Correspondence

Md. Arfanuzzaman, Food and Agriculture

Organization of the United Nations,

House # 37; Road #08, Dhanmondi R/A,

Dhaka, 1205, Bangladesh.

Emails: thisisarfan@gmail.com;

md.uzzman@fao.org

Abstract

The issue of transboundary river management is highly

pertinent to South Asia with conflicts emerging in water

resource management and utilization which indeed affect

the beneficial uses of downstream states. The paper con-

siders the situation of the Teesta river basin to assess the

water unavailability driven agricultural shock, cost of loss

and damage of the downstream region, identify the mutual

benefits of water collaboration, and suggest potential ad-

aptation options for water unavailability. The study found

during 1995–2010, the annual mean discharge in the upper

Teesta floodplain was 707 cumec, where the downstream

discharge was 140 cumec and during 2005–2010 the down-

stream region received less than 8% of the mean annual dis-

charge which may be attributed to reduced flow from the

upstream region due to the intense operation of dams and

barrage. Consequently, the water reliant 5,000 villages and

12 sub-districts of lower Teesta basin of Bangladesh were

found to be experiencing immense hydro-socioeconomic

impairment and food insecurity. The study estimates that

in the Rangpur region, total loss and damage of Boro rice

production is 15,08,020 metric tons during 2006–2015,

and in the Nilphamri total loss and damage is estimated

9,83,054 metric tons during the same period. Here, the total

computed economic loss for both the region is $564 million

from 2006–15 FY, which remarkably trims down the over-

all agricultural production and socio-economic situation in

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ARFANUZZAMAN

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INTRODUCTION

Transboundary water co-operation is one of the major prerequisites to reduce conflict, sustain liveli-

hood, water, and food security as well as the wellbeing of the population living in the upstream & down-

stream region of the river basin (Arfanuzzaman & Syed,2017; Munia,2016; Wolf,1998). As there are

261 international watersheds which affect about 40% of the world's population, hence robust upstream

downstream relationship is essential for the improved livelihood of the river basin people (Cosgrove

& Rijsberman,2000; Salman & Utperi,2003; Wolf,1998). It is very likely that in the absence of

water co-operation, water resources of the river basin will be difficult to manage in the view of water

unavailability, increasing water demand and climate change impacts, which will adversely affect the

livelihood and economic activities (Buhaug,2015; Dinar etal.,2018; Hanasaki,2013; Koubi,2019;

Veldkamp etal.,2017). This could lead to a situation that, larger socio-economic and environmen-

tal benefits from these transboundary river basins have been missed, which may trigger conflicts

between upstream and downstream territories across the river basins (Biswas & Hashimoto,1996;

Falkenmark,1986; Gleick,1993; Vitanyi,1979).

The water crisis is more likely to become a serious issue in the major river basin of the world

including Nile, Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Colorado due to the combined effect of climate

change, poor governance, and population growth which will impede the livelihood situation of the

poor and marginal people (Bowles etal.,2015; Farinosia etal.,2018; Immerzeel etal.,2010; Witmer

etal.,2017). The extent of water co-operation and diplomacy dictates the relationships among the ri-

parian nations. It is evident that unilateral water withdrawal in the upstream reduces the water unavail-

ability in the downstream and refrain the welfare of the lower riparian nations (Hanasz,2017; Verghese

& Ramaswamy,1994; Wallensteen & Swain,1997). The 1997 Convention on the Non-navigational

uses of International Watercourses commission, reflects the difficulties of bringing legal and hydro-

logic intricacies for cooperation, institutionalizing the inherent upstream downstream conflicts by

calling for both equitable use and an obligation not to cause appreciable harm (Wolf,1997). South

Asia is one of the riverine regions blessed with the enormous water resources of mighty trans-national

rivers including Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna, and home to 1.74 billion people, where

13.5 percent are categorized as extreme poor (WB,2015). Lack of water cooperation and inappro-

priate planning considering transboundary effects in conjunction with potential impacts of climate

change, shrinking Himalayan glaciers, and change in rainfall and temperature pattern, the South Asian

region has already turned into one of the most water stressed regions of the world (Bowles etal.,2015;

Haq etal.,2013, Immerzeel etal.,2010; Kraaijenbrink etal.,2017; Sivakumar & Stefanski,2013).

The Teesta river basin is such a transnational river that starts its journey from the North West Indian

state of Sikkim and flows through West Bengal and North-west region of Bangladesh and ultimately

merges with the Brahmaputra-Jamuna river system at Gaibandha. This river is considered as a lifeline

for agricultural production, livelihood activities, biodiversity, and ecosystem services flow, in both

the lower Teesta region of Bangladesh and fuel the hydro-

economic and political tension between the close riparian.

KEYWORDS

climate change, food security, hydro-politics, loss and damage,

regional development, Teesta river basin, upstream-downstream

conflict