Unwinnable Wars: American Power and Ethnic Conflict.

• Author: Korb, Lawrence J.

Few would deny that ethnic strife is part and parcel of geopolitics, or that the United States needs a sensible, consistent policy on how to deal with these ethnic conflicts. This eminently readable, but well-documented (430 footnotes) study discusses how the U.S. can develop such a policy. Callahan's prescription involves three interrelated components: First, the U.S. must develop the capacity to predict, prevent, and intervene with military force when necessary in these "unwinnable wars" Second, while the U.S. should not blindly become engaged in conflicts that are peripheral to the country's core interests, such conflicts can be relevant to America's interests. Third, U.S. involvement in ethnic conflicts, excluding military action, carries no guarantee of success. But U.S. credibility will suffer far more if the United States fails to try military action in the face of unchecked barbarism than if it tries and fails, as it did in Lebanon and Somalia.

Callahan begins his study by noting two important, but often overlooked, facts. First, ethnic conflict is an age-old problem. Despite the claims of the foreign policy establishment, it has not been caused by the end of the Cold War. Indeed, during the Cold War, ethnic conflict often exploded with unspeakable levels of inhumanity in places like Biafra, Burundi, East Pakistan, and Lebanon. Second, the number of ethnic conflicts in the future will be limited. The world is now at the tail end of the third great wave of state fragmentation during this century. The first wave was triggered by the breakup of the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman Empires, the second by the dissolution of the great colonial empires, and the third by the collapse of communism.

Callahan notes correctly that formulating US. policy toward these conflicts involves a "dazzling array of calculations." Policy makers must make judgments about the merits of particular nationality movements, their chances of creating viable...