Unraveling the Effects of the Internet on Political Participation?

• Author: Ramona S. Mcneal,Caroline J. Tolbert
• Published date: 01 June 2003
• Date: 01 June 2003
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/106591290305600206
• Subject Matter: Articles

Unraveling the Effects of the Internet on
Political Participation?
CAROLINE J. TOLBERT AND RAMONA S. MCNEAL, KENT STATE UNIVERSITY
While a long tradition of research documents the demographic and psychological determinants of political par-
ticipation, there is also evidence to suggest that changes in communication technology may play an important
role in influencing electoral behavior. We suggest traditional models of voter turnout may be under-specified
with respect to changes in the media, especially use of new information technologies. The Internet may
enhance voter information about candidates and elections, and in turn stimulate increased participation. Using
NES survey data and multivariate analysis we find respondents with access to the Internet and online election
news were significantly more likely to report voting in the 1996 and 2000 presidential elections. This was true
even after controlling for socioeconomic status, partisanship, attitudes, traditional media use, and state envi-
ronmental factors. Simulations suggest access to Internet and online election news significantly increased the
probability of voting by an average of 12 percent and 7.5 percent, respectively, in the 2000 election. The mobi-
lizing potential of the Internet in 2000 was also associated with increased participation beyond voting. The
findings help us understand how technology can impact voting and American political participation.
Leading behavioral theories of political participation indeed an early empirical study on the subject provided
have shown that socioeconomic characteristics of
supported for this conclusion (Bimber 2001). If the Internet
voters—education and income—are the most impor-
does have an effect on turnout, the finding would not only
tant variables in explaining whether one votes in the United
run counter to the empirical literature, but would require
States. Voter turnout is also affected by race, ethnicity, age,
scholars who study participation to account for and accom-
gender and attitudinal factors such as partisanship, political
modate a turnout effect of the Internet, including factors
efficacy and political interest (Abramson 1983; Campbell et
such as Internet use in theoretical and empirical models of
al.. 1960; Conway 1991; Wolfinger and Rosenstone 1980;
voting behavior.
Rosenstone and Hansen 1993; Piven and Cloward 1983;
It is difficult to predict which communication technol-
Verba and Nie 1972; Verba, Schlozman, and Brady 1995).
ogy will be widely adopted by the public and even more dif-
While a long tradition of research documents the demo-
ficult to anticipate the impact it may have on areas such as
graphic and psychological determinants of political partici-
the economy and politics. It was speculated that Videotext
pation, there is also evidence to suggest that changes in
and two-way cable television would be adopted quickly in
communication technology may play an important role in
the United States but they have not lived up to their prom-
influencing electoral behavior. Research has found that
ise. On the other hand, radio and television spread more
those who read about politics in newspapers learn more
rapidly than could have been anticipated. Media system
than those who watch television (Smith 1989). We suggest
dependency theory suggests that the difference between
traditional models of voter turnout may be under-specified
those forms of media that have a direct impact on the public
with respect to changes in the media, especially use of new
and those that do not is based on needs and resources
information technologies. In the past decade new commu-
(DeFleur and Ball-Rokeach 1989: 248-51). Individuals need
nications technology has changed the way many people
more information than they can themselves obtain due to
gather news and participate in politics. The most important
costs (money and time). One of the media’s gre a t e s t
of these new technologies is the Internet, which is becom-
resources is information and the public relies on media to
ing the mass medium for the twenty-first century. The Inter-
subsidize them—provide them with the information they
net combines the audiovisual components of traditional
need. A medium that provides the public with the informa-
forms of media such as newspaper and television with the
tion it needs quicker, cheaper, or in a more convenient form
interactivity and speed of telephone and mail. It facilitates
is more likely to be adopted and change patterns of behav-
communication flexibility, allowing individuals to choose
ior. Drawing on media system dependency theory, we
what information to access and when to access. It also per-
hypothesize that the variety of information sources on the
mits users to exchange large amounts of inform a t i o n
Internet (about candidates and elections), combined with
quickly regardless of geographical distance.
the speed and flexibility in obtaining information online,
Political scientists who ponder the question believe that
may stimulate increased participation.
the Internet should not be expected to boost turnout and
The next section draws on mass communications theory
to further explore how telecommunication technology may
increase participation through increasing the availability of
Political Research Quarterly, Vol. 56, No. 2 (June 2003): pp. 175-185
political information. Section 2 discusses the relationship
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176
POLITICAL RESEARCH QUARTERLY
between Internet access and varying forms of citizen partic-
f i n dings is that most re s e a rch treats the electorate as passive
ipation. The methodology and data used in this analysis are
receptors of the media. McLeod and McDonald (1985) arg u e d
discussed in section 3 and the findings in section 4. Section
that the public actively makes decisions about how much
5 concludes.
media they use and how they use it to form political opinions.
The media (both traditional and the Internet) can help
1. MEDIA AND POLITICAL INFORMATION
increase voter participation by not only providing citizens
with information to make informed voting decisions, but by
Events of the 1960’s and 1970’s illustrate how historical
stimulating interest in elections. While critics argue that
changes in communications can profoundly alter the role of
media coverage is increasing superficial, there is a substan-
the media in elections. Prior to the 1960s, political part i e s
tial body of literature that suggests voters learn from a vari-
acted as the dominant means of information exchange
ety of media sources including newspaper, television, and
between the public and political candidates, usually involv-
televised debates (Weaver 1996). Scholars who have studied
ing interpersonal communication via party conventions, cau-
the media over time generally conclude that the media rein-
cuses, etc. As is well understood, political party re f o rms at
forces political interest and voting intentions, because polit-
the end of the 1960s shifted control over presidential nomi-
ical interest, voting and learning from the media reinforce
nations away from party leaders, making the media (televi-
each other (see Weaver 1996 for a review). The agenda set-
sion and newspapers) the most important link between can-
ting literature (McCombs and Shaw 1972; Iyenger and
didates and the public. In a mass media dominated political
Kinder 1987; Weaver et al. 1981) has shown that voters use
a rena, presidential candidates needed to appeal to rank-and-
the media to learn what issues are important. There is also
file voters, requiring greater access to the general public, and
evidence that voters acquire information with regard to can-
could no longer simply appeal to party leaders to gain the
didate traits (Weaver et al. 1981) and candidate issue posi-
p a rty nomination. In addition, campaign finance re f o rm
tions (Chaffee and Kanihan 1997; Weaver and Drew 1993).
f o rced candidates to raise funds in smaller amounts fro m
This literature suggests that the media can increase voter
m o re sources. Both of these re f o rms increased candidate
turnout by providing the electorate with sufficient informa-
reliance on the mass media and decreased the importance of
tion to feel that it can make an informed decision.
p a rty leaders. Advances in technology also aided the transi-
At the dawn of the twenty-first century, we are again in
tion in power from party bosses to candidate-centered elec-
a transition in terms of how political information is trans-
tions. Wi d e s p read television ownership in the United States
mitted to voters, as advances in communication technology
allowed voters to see and hear the candidates from the com-
have altered the conduct of political campaigns and elec-
f o rt of their living rooms; individuals had greater access to
tions. Yet the impact of the Internet on political participa-
i n f o rmation to help them decide how to vote, and candidates
tion is largely unexplored, as social scientists are just begin-
no longer had to depend on the party for access to the voters
ning to try to answer a myriad of questions about its
(Kerbel 1995: 67-71).
potential positive and negative implications (Bimber 2001;
Scholars and pundits alike have expressed concern
Gibson 2002; Mossberger, Tolbert and Stansbury 2003;
about the transfer of power from the parties to the media in
Norris 2001; Shah, Kwak, and Holbert 2001).
the political process. Previous research in this area is rela-
P revious empirical re s e a rch on the...