Unexpected surge expands hiring.

• Position: Retailing

Rising gasoline and energy prices, skyrocketing health care costs, continued job-market weakness, and slipping confidence among consumers and business leaders pose a major threat to retailers hoping for strong holiday sales. This made it particularly startling when retailer Best Buy reported that it is adding 25,000 holiday workers, a two percent increase per store from 2003.

In its annual retail hiring outlook, global placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc., Chicago, predicts that some retailers will bring back former employees in order to limit the cost of recruiting and training temporary help. The last thing retailers want to do is cut further into profit margins by spending on recruiting and training new sales people and cashiers.

"Some ... retailers [put] up Christmas displays a month earlier than usual to jump-start holiday sales after a bleak back-to-school season. However, some analysts are already projecting that many will have to resort to aggressive discounting to get shoppers into the stores," notes CEO John A. Challenger, who suggests that retailers with optimistic sales expectations and big holiday hiring plans may be underestimating the impact rising gasoline and energy prices have on consumers' spending power.

Business leaders are not very optimistic, either. as the Conference Board's CEO confidence index fell for the second consecutive quarter. "When chief executives are...