Understanding New Middle Eastern Leadership: An Operational Code Approach

• Author: Sercan Canbolat,Özgür Özdamar
• Date: 01 March 2018
• Published date: 01 March 2018
• DOI: 10.1177/1065912917721744
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912917721744

Political Research Quarterly

2018, Vol. 71(1) 19 –31

© 2017 University of Utah

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DOI: 10.1177/1065912917721744

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Article

Introduction

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is one of the

most conflict-prone regions in world politics. The region

has experienced a long cycle of political violence, includ-

ing interstate wars, domestic conflicts, and terrorism,

which can be traced back to the demise of the Ottoman

Empire and the Western incursion in the wake of World

War I. The Arab uprisings that began in Tunisia in

December 2010 and spread across the region increased

hopes for democratic transition and an open economy.

Instead, we have observed Islamist politicians coming to

power in relatively free elections and the old establish-

ment’s harsh reactions to these electoral victories, fol-

lowed by civil wars, coups, and third-party interventions.

In the rest of the world, governments have struggled to

interact with the new regional leadership and have faced

criticism for tolerating Islamism as a nondemocratic ide-

ology. For example, former US President Barack Obama

was accused of secretly favoring the Muslim Brotherhood

(MB), which was labeled as a terrorist organization by

the US and Saudi governments as well as by both the

Mubarak and Sisi regime in Egypt, and considered to be

inimical toward Christianity (Gertz 2015).

We argue that the conviction that MENA states are run

by belligerent leaders does not rely on systematic and

reproducible data and analysis. We therefore ask the fol-

lowing: Are the political beliefs of the Islamist leaders

hostile or cooperative? What are the political instruments

they use to achieve their aims—coercion or cooperation?

What are their leadership types and strategies—will they

bully their opponents or resolve their differences diplo-

matically? What is the best strategic approach toward

these leaders that will result in their cooperation? What is

the relevance of such operational code analysis in terms

of broader IR theories?

To answer these questions, we focus on political Islam

as arguably one of the most powerful forces shaping poli-

tics in the region. We assert that one should understand

political Islam and its leadership patterns if one needs to

conduct business with MENA leaders. Specifically, we

721744PRQXXX10.1177/1065912917721744Political Research QuarterlyÖzdamar and Canbolat

research-article2017

1Bilkent University, Ankara, Turkey

2University of Connecticut, Storrs, USA

Corresponding Author:

Özgür Özdamar, Department of International Relations, Bilkent

University, A Building No: 306, Ankara 06800, Turkey.

Email: ozgur@bilkent.edu.tr

Understanding New Middle Eastern

Leadership: An Operational Code

Approach

Özgür Özdamar1 and Sercan Canbolat2

Abstract

Political Islam and Islamist organizations have broadly gained strength across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

in the post-Cold War era. Following the Arab uprisings, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), generally viewed as the world’s

largest and most influential Islamist organization, has shaped the wider landscape of MENA politics. This study examines

MB leadership by comparing M. Morsi of Egypt, R. Ghannouchi of Tunisia, and K. Meshaal of Gaza as examples of Islamist

leaders to explain their political belief systems and predict their foreign-policy behavior. We use the operational code

approach, a content-analysis software and statistical tests to conduct the study. Results show that the three leaders’

foreign policy beliefs are analogous to the averages of world leaders. Results also partially support the hypothesis that

their foreign-policy propensities are similar to each other. We conclude that despite the conventional portrayal of MB

leadership, these leaders use negotiation and cooperation to settle their differences in foreign affairs, and the best way

to approach them is to engage in a Rousseauvian assurance game that emphasizes international social cooperation.

Results also suggest important implications in terms of mainstream international relations theories.

Keywords

operational code analysis, leadership, political psychology, foreign policy decision making, the Middle East, Muslim

Brotherhood, political Islam, Rachid Ghannouchi, Khaled Meshaal, Mohamed Morsi