Sea services: facing uncertainty, Navy contemplates 'alternative futures'.

• Author: Erwin, Sandra I.
• Position: FUTURE NAVY

IN A WORLD WHERE OIL IS KING, weapons of mass destruction lurk in container ships and "peer competitors" could emerge to challenge the naval dominance of the United States, there should be no shortage of responsibilities for the nation's sea services.

That is the thinking behind the Navy's latest attempt to articulate the role of maritime forces, and to provide a sensible justification for its plan to increase the current 278-ship fleet to 313 during the next three decades. Navy officials worry that fleet expansion efforts could be wrecked if the Defense Department cuts naval budgets to pay for the addition of thousands of troops to the Army and Marine Corps over the next four years.

As they unveil a newly drafted plan for future maritime operations--titled "A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower"--Navy officials are seeking to convince the Defense Department and Congress that it would be unwise for the United States to not invest in the modernization of the fleet, and that the projected increases in the size of ground forces should not come at the expense of naval assets. To the contrary, Navy officials contend, the United States needs to strengthen its maritime forces in anticipation of future military threats.

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The Navy contends that the future is so uncertain that the sea services--Navy, Marine Corps and Coast Guard--must be prepared for the unexpected.

As they draw up their weapon procurement budgets, Navy planners are being asked to consider how ships, aircraft and other technologies would be relevant in various "alternative futures" such as humanitarian operations in Third World countries, counterterrorist interdictions on the water and full-blown wars at sea against rising naval powers like China.

"We have to be prepared for different views of the world," says Vice Adm. John G. Morgan Jr., deputy chief of naval operations for plans and strategy.

The increasing importance of oil as a global strategic commodity means the United States will be expected to help protect the oceans and waterways that serve as conduits for fuels, experts say. Disruptions of oil supplies potentially could ignite tensions around the world and even degenerate into armed conflicts, they warn.

To prevent the escalation of oil-related wars, the United States should rely on the Navy and the other sea services to engage in "resource diplomacy," says Robert D. Hormats, vice chairman of Goldman Sachs International. The intent would be...