UMB's 2015 prognosis: more momentum: favorable outlook backed by top company roundtable.

• Author: Taylor, Mike
• Position: ECONOMIC FORECAST - Discussion

UMB BANK'S Chief Investment Officer KC Mathews anticipates continued momentum for the U.S. economy in the year ahead, enough that he expects the Fed to raise short-term interest rates, likely around mid-year. Thus, Mathews has dubbed his upbeat 2015 forecast "The Liftoff."

"We're kind of stealing the Fed's term," Mathews explained back in mid-December. "In the jargon of our business, when the Fed increases rates, that's called 'liftoff.' We're taking that term and applying it more broadly. Not only do we see significant improvement in economic growth, I think it will give plenty of comfort to the Fed that if the economy is growing at that speed, it can easily start to raise rates and normalize the situation. And it won't derail the economy because of the strength and momentum we have."

Among the positives, Mathews points to the steady increase in U.S. job creation over the past two years, a trend he expects to continue in 2015.

"In 2013, we created an average of 191,000 jobs per month. In 2014 we created about 228,000 per month. [This year] we're probably going to add about 250,000 jobs per month on average. So 191,000 to 228,000 to 250,000--that's a big positive for economic growth, for consumer confidence and things like that."

UMB's positive outlook for 2015 was reinforced by CEOs whose firms won the ColoradoBiz Top Company awards last year. As has become tradition, CEOs of the Top Companies from various industry categories were rewarded with a three-day retreat in October to...