UMB investment chief expects 'sequel to 2013.

• Author: Taylor, Mike
• Position: UMB Bank N.A. - Interview

UMB CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER KC Mathews has dubbed this year the "The Sequel" in terms of what he expects from the economy and the markets in 2014 That is, an extension of the slow to moderate growth seen in 2013 - with a chance of improving on that

"We're thinking about 2.4 percent real GDP growth in 2014, a little bit better than the 1.8 percent growth in 2013," Mathews said in mid-December. Keeping with the cinematic theme, he added, "The sequel's going to be better than the original - a better ending where you have more growth and activity in the economy. The only thing I don't know is if you can beat the (2013) returns in the stock market."

Mathews headed up a roundtable discussion last October that included CEOs of ColoradoBiz Top Company winners UMB, which is based in Kansas City, Mo., and has significant banking operations in Colorado, sponsors the annual Top Company retreat held in California's Napa Valley. It's both a reward for leaders of winning companies and a chance to share business and economic insights.

"I learn a lot from them," Mathews says "Sometimes it validates our research, and sometimes it makes us scratch our heads and ask, 'What are we missing,' It's a great tool for us to spend time with these business owners and find out, for example, Are you thinking about hiring people? What about your capital expenditures? Are you going to spend money to buy new trucks, new equipment? Are you going to finance it or use retained earnings?' It's a wonderful experience for us."

One reason for Mathews' mildly optimistic outlook on 2014 is consumer confidence; he notes that consumer spending makes up about 70 percent of the GDP...