THE UKRAINE-RUSSIA WAR AND NON-ALIGNED SOUTH ASIA: A STEADY WALK AMIDST GREAT POWER POLITICS.

• Author: Singh, Shalini

INTRODUCTION

The Russia-Ukraine conflict emerged in early 2022 as the world was recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. Global economies were trying to get back on their feet while inflation was rising; supply chains got disrupted and economies collapsed. Monetary policies got tightened and the price of basic commodities such as petroleum and even food grains increased. (1) For Asia-Pacific and South Asia particularly some issues at hand are primarily a matter of concern: global economic slowdown, weakening currencies, high inflation, and rising interest rates. (2) Geopolitical tensions are also rising due to conflictual interests and contradicting views (for example, India-China border tensions, Sri Lanka's failing economy, and devastating floods in Pakistan). South Asia is also facing serious challenges on a different front. As Russia and Ukraine are significant trading partners with several South Asian countries, any disruptions in trade between these countries can have a severe impact on their economies. Additionally, the sanctions imposed on Russia by Western countries have affected the global oil market, leading to higher oil prices, which has a significant impact on the highly-exposed South Asian economy.

This war has also increased geopolitical tensions, particularly between Russia and Western countries. Some South Asian countries, such as India and Pakistan, have close ties with Russia and Western countries, and any escalation of tensions can have significant implications for these countries. Russia is a significant supplier of oil and gas to several South Asian countries, including India and Pakistan. Any disruption in the supply of oil and gas from Russia can have a severe impact on their energy security through higher prices and potential energy shortages. The Russia-Ukraine war has similarly caused instability in the global energy market, resulting in higher oil prices everywhere, severely impacting South Asian economies that rely heavily on oil imports. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), by January 2023, India was the world's fifth-largest oil importer and could face an increase in its current account deficit due to higher oil prices. (3) Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka could face similar economic challenges. While South Asian countries are not directly affected by the refugee crisis, they may face challenges in providing humanitarian aid to refugees, particularly if the crisis worsens.

The Russia-Ukraine crisis has altered the dynamics of the contemporary definition of security and regional stability and has ripple effects far beyond Europe. South Asia, as a region, has been impacted by Russia's incursion into Ukraine because Russia is a major defense supplier for both India and Bangladesh and is an emerging economic partner for Pakistan. As a result, the crisis in Ukraine will alter South Asia's security ecosystem and can alter the regional balance by establishing new political standards or deviations among nations.

The article will highlight the conundrum that South Asia is facing because of this crisis and why most South Asian nations are sticking to the nonaligned stance. They accomplish this by abstaining from United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) voting with neutral responses. This article will also cover the implications of this neutrality on the Indian subcontinent-namely, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka--and continue with a comparative study between India's and Pakistan's neutrality. It will conclude with a strategic analysis of South Asian neutrality.

THE NON-ALIGNED MOVEMENT (NAM) IN SOUTH ASIA

The South Asia region is at a critical security juncture, while current political alignment toward any power involved in the war could prove fatal for the countries in the region. This kind of dilemma is not new to South Asia. Cold War politics and the creation of two ideological blocs, democratic capitalism versus communism, demanded such critical decision-making, in which countries effectively had to align with one of the blocs. However, to protect their hard-earned independence, South Asian countries typically maintained a safer distance from this bloc politics and prevented themselves from becoming pawns in the greater game by sticking to nonalignment. India played a key role in the formation and development of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). Formally, non-alignment refers to a foreign policy stance of not aligning oneself with any power bloc or alliance. India, along with other South Asian countries such as Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bangladesh, formed the Non-Aligned Movement in 1961 at Belgrade Conference. (4) NAM sought to create a third pole in international politics, outside the traditional power blocs of the U.S.-led Western alliance and the USSR-led Eastern bloc.

Non-alignment was seen as a technique or a process to pursue national interests without becoming embroiled in the global power struggle between the U.S. and the USSR. It also allowed South Asian countries to maintain friendly relations with both great powers simultaneously, which was particularly important for India, given its historical ties with the USSR and its growing economic and strategic ties with the U.S.

During the Cold War, South Asian countries faced considerable challenges due to their geographic location and strategic importance. India and Pakistan, in particular, were caught up in the power struggle between the U.S. and the USSR. However, NAM allowed these countries to pursue an independent foreign policy that prioritized their own interests and avoided being dragged into the wider ideological conflict.

Today, as the world faces new challenges and crises...