The U.S. military: under strain and at risk.

• Author: Perry, William J.
• Position: VIEWPOINT

In the current debate over the nation's defense strategy and spending priorities, there is an elephant in the room that few are willing to acknowledge: Our ground forces are under enormous strain. This strain, if not soon relieved, will have highly corrosive effects on the force.

Much of the pressure on ground forces today stems from their high tempo of operations. Every available combat brigade from the active duty Army has already been to Afghanistan or Iraq at least once for a 12-month tour. Many units are now in their second or third tours of duty, and some individuals are going back for their fourth tours. In addition, approximately 95 percent the Army National Guard's combat battalions and special operations units have been mobilized since 9/11.

Short of full mobilization or a new presidential declaration of national emergency, there is little available combat capacity remaining in the Army National Guard. Less than 16 percent of the Army Reserve remains eligible for mobilization to support operations in Iraq and Afghanistan under current authorities, and many of the remaining specialties are not in demand. At the same time, the average length of tour for reservists has more than doubled--from 156 days in Desert Storm to 342 days in Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom.

The Marine Corps is also under significant strain. All active duty Marine Corps units are being used on a "tight" rotation schedule of seven months deployed, less than a year home to reset, and then another seven months deployed. Active duty Marine Expeditionary Units are experiencing two operational deployments per cycle rather than the usual one per cycle. In addition, all of the Marine Corps Reserve's combat units have been mobilized.

This high tempo of operations, combined with raised expectations that new recruits will be sent to the dangerous environment of Iraq, have increased the difficulty of recruiting young men and women into the Army. Indeed, the Army is experiencing the beginnings of what could become a major recruiting crisis. The active duty Army began missing its recruiting goals in February 2005, when it fell short of its monthly goal--by 27 percent--for the first time since 2000. At the end of fiscal 2005, the active Army fell 6,627 recruits short of its annual goal of 80,000 new accessions.

Although this development is not alarming in and of itself, the recruiting shortfall may become far larger this year if public support for the war in Iraq continues to decline, the demographic of young Americans eligible to serve continues to shrink, the economy continues to offer more attractive alternatives to young job seekers and the propensity of young Americans to enlist continues to decrease. Although the Army has made its monthly recruiting goals in the first months of 2006, it has done so by "front loading" its intake of new recruits and by lowering its quality standards. In October 2005, for example, 19 percent of Army recruits were drawn from "Category IV," the lowest aptitude level accepted--a percentage far higher than the historical average.

The Army Reserve fell 16 percent behind its recruiting target for the year, and the Army National Guard 20 percent short of its annual goal. Although the National Guard appears to be coming out of its recruiting slump, the Army Reserve is still struggling to bring new people into its ranks.

Part of the problem is that not as many people leaving the active duty military are signing up for the Guard and reserves as in the past. Some are being prevented from leaving the active Army by "stop loss" orders. Others are choosing to stay in the active force. Still others, once they get out, do not want to risk being deployed again as a reservist. As a result, the Army Guard and reserves have fewer "prior service" personnel and are now in direct competition with the active Army for new recruits.

The flip side of the recruiting coin is retention. The good news is that the Army and Marine Corps are meeting their overall retention goals, for the moment, thanks in large part to the willingness of young patriots to endure additional danger, hardship and time away from home when their country calls. But this may not be enough to avoid a major retention crisis for the Army.

Although the Army is reporting that many soldiers are taking advantage of reenlistment bonuses, it is difficult to get an accurate picture of retention...