U.S. Central Command Naval chief foresees more volatility in the region.

• Author: Erwin, Sandra I.
• Position: Upfront

While naval forces under U.S. Central Command remain primarily focused on the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, commanders are concerned about emerging threats that could further destabilize the Middle East. They also worry about maintaining the support of foreign allies, which make up 40 percent of U.S.-led maritime forces.

Among the most troubling developments in the region is the growing clout of Iranian hard-line conservative clerics who are intent on gaining power in that country and potentially obtaining nuclear weapons, according to Vice Adm. David C. Nichols, commander of the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet, in Bahrain.

"Iran is most likely to be the next conventional conflict in the CENTCOM [Central Command] area," Nichols said in a presentation to the Tailhook Association's annual convention of naval aviators in Reno, Nev.

"They are determined to build a nuclear bomb," Nichols said of leaders in Iran. Officials at Central Command see continuing Iranian support for terrorism that is contributing to instability in Southern Iraq, he added. The U.S. invasion and toppling of Saddam Hussein has bolstered Iran's regional clout, Nichols explained. "There is a sense that the [pro-U.S.] reformers are in decline and Iran is stronger in the region because we eliminated its tactical enemies: Saddam to the West and the Taliban in the East, and its strategic enemy in the region, Saudi Arabia, is pinned down internally."

Additionally, Iran perceives the United States as being "pinned down in Afghanistan and Iraq, and unable to respond in a meaningful way to any Iranian provocation," Nichols said.

Iran presents a complex throat because the country has essentially two military components: the Revolutionary Guards and the regular military.

The Revolutionary Guards provide military support to Islamic conservative clerics who ark socking to enhance their political clout.

According to a recent report published by "Eurasia insight," the Revolutionary Guards have control over Iran's nuclear program. "The program, trader intense international scrutiny because of its arms-making potential, is a source of tremendous national pride in Iran," wrote Kamal Nazer Yasin, a journalist specializing in Iranian affairs.

The article also notes that the presence of U.S. troops in two neighboring countries, Afghanistan and Iraq, has bolstered the Revolutionary Guards' role in defending Iran's national interests.

Nichols characterized the Revolutionary Guards as a "bunch of...