Turkish Foreign Policy in the Post-Cold War Era: The Challenges of Multi-Regionalism.

• Author: SAYARI, SABRI

"Observers have described Turkey's efforts to chart its course in the new international system in such terms as a policy of `near activism' or one that displayed signs of both `daring and caution.' However, this [does] not imply the abandonment of moderation and caution ... [in] Turkey's approach w international and regional affairs...."

The end of the Cold War and the resulting superpower competition has had major repercussions on global and regional politics. In the 1990s, all states, large and small, sought to adjust to the new international realities resulting from the tides of change that swept through Eurasia. Turkey is one of the countries that was most profoundly affected by the disintegration of the former Soviet Union, the transformation of the political and strategic landscape of Eastern Europe and Central Asia and the eruption of violent ethno-national conflicts in the Balkans and the Caucasus. These developments radically altered Turkey's foreign policy environment, creating opportunities to expand its role while also posing new risks and challenges. Moreover, these changes have occurred during a period when the growing visibility of political Islam and the intensification of the Kurdish problem increased strains on the country's political and social order. The combined impact of these external and internal developments may have made the difficult task of adjustment to the post-Cold War international system even more challenging for Turkey than for most other countries. They also underscored the growing importance of the linkages between Turkish foreign policy and domestic politics.

In the 1990s, Turkey modified some of its established Republican foreign policy principles and undertook new initiatives to meet the challenges of the post-Cold War era.(1) Observers have described Turkey's efforts to chart its course in the new international system in such terms as a policy of "new activism" or one that displayed signs of both "daring and caution."(2) Indeed, compared to the Cold War years, Turkish foreign policy in the 1990s was significantly more activist and assertive in the Middle East, the Balkans, the Caucasus and Central Asia. However, this did not imply the abandonment of moderation and caution that has traditionally characterized Turkey's approach to international and regional affairs. On some issues, particularly those concerning northern Iraq and Syria, Turkey did adopt policies that were daring and carried considerable risk. On others, however, including its response to the ethno-national conflicts in the Balkans and the Caucasus, Turkish activism was noticeably cautious and moderate, despite considerable domestic pressure for greater military aid to beleaguered Muslim and Turkic communities.

ASSERTIVE ACTIVISM: THE MIDDLE EAST

Turkey's pursuit of active and assertive policies has been most pronounced in the Middle East. With the exception of a brief period in the mid-1950s, Turkey has assiduously pursued a cautious and low-profile policy toward its southern neighbors. This conservative approach arose from several worries: Turkey was concerned about the possibility of being drawn into regional conflicts; its main focus was on the perceived Soviet threat from the north; and the former Soviet Union's close ties with countries such as Syria limited the scope of Turkey's actions.

Turkey's traditional Middle East policy underwent a significant change with its decision to participate in the 1990 Gulf War. Under President Ozal's leadership, Turkey joined the Allied coalition, took a strong stand against Saddam Hussein's regime, terminated the flow of Iraqi oil exports through the pipelines in Turkey and permitted the US Air Force to use NATO bases in Turkey for strikes into northern Iraq.(3) Turkey's participation in the Gulf War stemmed largely, though not exclusively, from a desire to reassert its role and importance in the post-Cold War era. Policymakers in Ankara were apprehensive that the demise of the Soviet threat and East-West rivalries would undermine their country's geo-strategic role in the Western alliance. However, many among the Turkish political and military elites were equally concerned that participation in the Allied coalition would expose Turkey to unnecessary risks from Iraq--a state with which Turkey shares a long border. But President Ozal, who was convinced that Iraq's invasion of Kuwait offered an opportunity to demonstrate his country's geo-strategic importance to the West, managed to maneuver Turkey into becoming a central player in the Allied coalition.

The expansion of Turkey's role in the Middle East continued after the end of the Gulf War.(4) The principal reason was the escalation of the campaign of political violence and terrorism by the Kurdish separatist organization, the PKK. The emergence of a power vacuum in northern Iraq following the Gulf War enabled the PKK to establish bases in Iraq close to the Turkish border for strikes against Turkey. Ankara's response to the PKK's challenge was to strengthen its counter-insurgency effort at home and adopt pro-active policies in northern Iraq and toward Syria. Since the early 1990s, Turkish troops have periodically entered northern Iraq in pursuit of the PIG(. During these military incursions that have typically lasted several weeks, Turkish jets have bombed suspected PKK bases while ground troops have combed the area in search of PKK militants.

In 1998, Turkey finally decided to send a strong and decisive signal to Syria--a neighboring Arab state that had long provided extensive support to the PKK despite repeated Turkish complaints. Ankara threatened to use military force to secure the expulsion of the PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, who had been a longtime resident of Damascus. The showdown with Syria, which led to Ocalan's expulsion from that country, was a notable example of the transition from the reactive foreign policy behavior of the Cold War period to a more pro-active approach to issues that Turkish policymakers perceived to be critical to national security

The Kurdish issue and the PKK also contributed to Turkey's decision to forge a new security cooperation arrangement with Israel.(5) The signing of a military training and education agreement in 1996 created a formidable new alignment between the region's two militarily strongest states, which had important ramifications for regional balances of power. The Israeli-Turkish agreement was not conceived as a formal alliance and both countries repeatedly stressed that it was not directed against third parties. Nevertheless, one of Turkey's principal motives was to send a signal to Syria about the increased security risks of pursuing adversarial policies, especially its continued support for the PICA(. By forging closer ties with Israel, Turkey also expected to improve its military capabilities and technical know-how and find an alternative source for its weapons systems. It faced increased difficulties in obtaining sophisticated weapons from the US due to opposition from anti-Turkish ethnic lobbies and human rights groups in Congress. In addition to these primary objectives, other considerations, such as Turkish expectations of...