Turkey's energy insecurity.

• Author: Tunali, Odil

At the crossroads where East meets West, the energy demands of the future confront the unsustainable policies of the present.

The economic boom underway throughout much of the developing world today is spurring a surge in energy markets the likes of which have not been seen since the 1960s. The International Energy Agency projects that developing countries' energy use will nearly double by 2010, and that their share of the world total will grow from the current 27 percent to 40 percent. While such figures can be seen as signs of progress, they bear seeds of danger as well. If the new demand is met mainly by fossil fuels, rising oil prices and spreading environmental damage could undermine the economic development that extended energy use is intended to trigger.

Turkey is a country that epitomizes the dilemma. A cultural bridge between East and West, and a geographic one between oil producers and consumers, Turkey lies at the crossroads of the industrial and developing worlds. Occupying a territory more than twice the size of Germany or Japan, it has a population of 60 million - projected to reach 80 million by 2010 - and a rapidly industrializing economy. Yet, in its per capita income and energy use, it is closer to Brazil or Thailand than to its industrialized fellow members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

As it strives to catch up with its European neighbors, one of the biggest challenges Turkey faces is providing the energy needed to fuel the engine of economic development. With limited domestic energy resources, on top of growing economic and ecological constraints, Turkey is at the brink of critical decisions regarding its energy options. Will it slavishly follow the West's outdated example, and rely heavily on fossil fuels and nuclear power generation - or will it make the leap to an energy system based on high efficiency, natural gas, and renewable resources? As many other developing countries have discovered, these rapidly evolving new technologies can be more economical than the conventional sources of the past.

Turkey's energy use has doubled since the early 1980s. The Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources estimates that it will jump another 148 percent between 1994 and 2010. Following these projections, the government has embarked on an ambitious campaign to maximize existing energy supplies and tap into new ones.

Because much of the increased demand is for electricity, to provide household amenities as well as to power industries, this is the government's most immediate concern. Projections by the state-owned Turkish Electricity Authority (TEK) reveal that the country may soon face power shortages unless new investments are undertaken. Accordingly, plans are proceeding for 44 coal-fired, 14 gas-fired, and 2 nuclear power plants, as well as for scores of hydro-electricity projects to be in service by 2010. This translates into 40,000 megawatts (MW) of new capacity to be added between 1995 and 2010, bringing the total to nearly 60,000 MW (see table).

Unlike its neighbors, Iraq and Iran, Turkey is not endowed with significant oil reserves. Four-fifths of its oil is already imported, and dependence on imports is rising as domestic production dwindles further. Because oil is both expensive and limited in...