Turkey rising: increasing confidence in times of conflict.

• Author: Burns, Andrew
• Position: Turkey and the Arab Spring: Leadership in the Middle East

A Review of Turkey and the Arab Spring: Leadership in the Middle East

By Graham Fuller

(Vancouver, BC: Bozorg Press, 2014), 408 pages.

As the saying goes, history may not repeat itself, but it certainly rhymes. This adage is the thrust of much of Graham Fuller's recent book Turkey and the Arab Spring: Leadership in the Middle East. Early in the text, Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu describes his nation's resurgence as "the return of history," and the echoes of Ottoman-era preeminence haunt the rest of the book. (1) Fuller, a former CIA official, delivers an accessible, well-researched book that explores the nuances of an increasingly confident Turkey and its modern ambitions within the Middle East. The author traces the roots of modern events through the Cold War and colonial administration of the Sykes-Picot era and into the prolonged period of Ottoman decline, when Istanbul's regional influence began to wane. By shading current geopolitics with their historical beginnings, he convincingly explores the layers and contradictions of power in Ankara.

Fuller is attentive to what Ankara's newfound confidence will not bode for the future. "Neo-Ottoman" assertiveness of Ankara as a regional power likely will not signal the rebirth of the empire: Regional powers are unlikely to be subjugated as vilayets or vassal states in any meaningful way. The author is also careful to discuss the history of the Ottoman caliph and, in contrast with the anxieties of jittery pundits, why a grand regional caliphate is unlikely to be a meaningful component of an assertive Muslim state, in Turkey or elsewhere. In the pursuit of a modern, ostensibly Western state, Mustafa Kemal Atatiirk, the first president of Turkey and perhaps the most significant figure in the birth of the country as a post-Ottoman state, dismissed the final caliph in 1924.

Rather, the author argues that Turkey will broaden its engagement with other powers and chart a course following its own interests. This may well occur outside of regional blocs like the EU, and the author notes that Erdogan's growing assertiveness is broadening his appeal as a potential partner beyond the Western world. Turkey s policies will likely be dictated by the pursuit of its own geopolitical interests rather than the dictates of radical Islam. Although democracy in Turkey is not unassailable, it will likely remain a beacon of stability and freedom in the region.

Fuller does several things right. He skillfully...