Tsunami earthquake location was foretold.

• Position: Your Life - Brief Article

The location of the Dec. 26, 2004, earthquake that unleashed a devastating tsunami across the Indian Ocean was identified--in a 10-year forecast of likely earthquake sites worldwide--almost two weeks before the tragedy by researchers at the University of California, Davis, Center for Computational Science and Engineering.

They used records of past earthquakes of magnitude 5 and greater and computer models to produce a map that shows "hotspots," where earthquakes of magnitude 7 or higher are likely to occur. Of 38 large earthquakes worldwide since 2000, 30 have occurred directly on or within the margin of error identified by the forecast. The Dec. 26 magnitude 9 event struck off the coast of Indonesia.

"These results indicate that the technique developed by our group can successfully identify the locations for 80 to 90% of future large earthquakes over time periods of up to a decade or so," maintains John Rundle, director of the Center. The information could allow governments and agencies to make informed decisions about where to locate critical infrastructure and...