Trust in post‐conflict life: Evidence from a conflict zone in Pakistan

• Published date: 01 May 2022
• Author: Muhsin Ali,Karim Khan,Muhammad Saeed Meo
• Date: 01 May 2022
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2403

ACADEMIC PAPER

Trust in post-conflict life: Evidence from a conflict zone

in Pakistan

Muhsin Ali

1

| Karim Khan

2

| Muhammad Saeed Meo

3

1

Department of Economics and Econometrics,

Pakistan Institute of Development Economics

(PIDE), Islamabad, Capital, Pakistan

2

Department of Economics and Econometrics,

Pakistan Institute of Development Economics

(PIDE), Islamabad, Cpaital, Pakistan

3

Department of Management Sciences, The

Superior College Lahore, Lahore, Punjab,

Pakistan

Correspondence

Muhsin Ali, PhD Scholar, Department of

Economics and Econometrics, Pakistan

Institute of Development Economics (PIDE),

Islamabad, Pakistan.

Email: muhsinali_15@pide.edu.pk

This study investigates the impact of violent shock on bystanders' trust by providing

evidence from a violent conflict, which occurred in District Swat of Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Pakistan. To study the causal impact, this study identifies District

Buner—a neighboring district, as a control group. This study collects data from a ran-

domly selected 400 households on Social trust (Within-group trust and Out-group

trust) and Public trust (trust on Political institutions and trust on Ordered institutions)

in each district, and applies the ordinary least square (OLS) and spatial regression dis-

continuity design (SRDD) estimation techniques. The OLS findings regarding social

trust suggest that occurrence of violent shock promotes within-group trust, however,

impairs out-group trust. Similarly, the findings suggest that violent shock adversely

affects the inhabitants' public trust, that is, lowers trust on political institutions and

ordered institutions in a society. Additionally, supporting the OLS findings, the SRDD

findings suggest that the impact of violent shock on social and public trust varies

across the locations of the individuals. Alternatively, the individuals in highly affected

region exhibit comparatively high within-group trust, however, demonstrate lower

out-group trust, and trust on political and ordered institutions than individuals in the

moderately and least affected regions.

1|INTRODUCTION

Trust in others is considered an essential element that facilitate s the

functioning of a society and economic inter actions. Alternatively,

societal success is perceived condition al to the level of trust among

the agents of a society (Conzo & Salust ri, 2019). Trust as a lubricant

of socio-economic system; promotes, gro wth (Zak & Knack, 2001),

financial development (Guiso, Sapienza , & Zingales, 2004), quality of

institutions (La Porta, 1997), and equal di stribution of wealth

(Delhey & Newton, 2005). Additionall y, it fosters cooperation in a

society (Bjørnskov, 2012), lowers the role of co mplex formal institu-

tions (Knack & Keefer, 1997), minimi zes transaction costs

(Holmberg & Rothstein, 2017), and promot es subjective well-being

(Bjørnskov, 2003).

Although, a vast literature inquires socio economic impacts of

trust; nevertheless, a less focus has given to its determinants, in par-

ticular, how conflict affects trust. The conflicts' literature proposes

two opposing views in this regards. The pessimistic view predicts that

conflict promotes lawlessness, chaos, and widespread disorder. There-

fore, leads to general feelings of resentment and distrust toward out-

group members and state institutions (De Juan & Pierskalla, 2016;

Werner, 2016). Nevertheless, a relatively new line of literature argues

that conflict is not always exclusively destructive. The people who live

through war violence develop social networks and behave more

cooperatively and pro-socially (Bauer et al., 2016; Parkinson, 2013).

Alternatively, direct victims of conflict exhibit higher trust toward

within-group members with whom they frequently interact to lower

the cost of shock (Bowles, 2008).

Driven from discussion, trust is endogenous to a conflict shock.

However, such legacy of conflict is least inquired. In this study, we

inquire how violent conflict, which surged in District “Swat”of Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Pakistan, affects the level of social and public trust

of the inhabitants. This study contributes to the existing literature in a

variety of ways: first, this study as a pioneer work in case of Pakistan,

explores how violent conflict affect social and public trust, and sets

their new equilibrium paths. Second, existing literature on conflict and

Received: 29 July 2020 Revised: 13 August 2020 Accepted: 16 August 2020

DOI: 10.1002/pa.2403

J Public Affairs. 2022;22:e2403. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/pa © 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 1of12

https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2403