Trump's defense budget ramp-up in doubt.

AuthorHarper, Jon
PositionBudget Matters

Although many defense hawks are elated that Republicans now control the White House and Congress, political hurdles still stand in the way of major increases in military spending, analysts said.

One is the Budget Control Act, which caps defense expenditures in fiscal years 2018 through 2021. The Obama administration's most recent future years defense proposal exceeded the budget caps by $113 billion, according to Todd Harrison, director of defense budget analysis at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

President Donald Trump is expected to request significantly larger defense budgets than those put forth by his predecessor. Meanwhile, Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., released a defense white paper calling for a base defense budget of $640 billion in fiscal year 2018.

That amount would exceed the budget caps by about $90 billion, noted Katherine Blakeley, a research fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.

Lifting the caps would require the approval of Senate Democrats, who are in a position to filibuster GOP legislative proposals. Democrats have insisted that any increases in defense spending must be matched by increases in non-defense spending, and they are preparing for a showdown with Trump and congressional Republicans on a number of contentious issues.

"With major debates about domestic programs, entitlements, infrastructure, trade, taxes, deficits and more on deck for this spring and summer, a straightforward bipartisan agreement to lift the BCA caps is unlikely," Blakeley wrote in a budget brief.

One way for lawmakers to skirt the budget restrictions would be to use overseas contingency operations accounts to pay for enduring needs, a common tactic in recent years. McCain's proposal called for $60 billion in annual OCO funding over a five-year period, the majority of which would likely go toward base budget items, Blakeley said.

"As long as there isn't any real distinction between base budget and actual war operations, Congress then can set [defense...

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