Trump and NATO: Will NATO Survive Under a Second Trump Administration?

• Pages: 103-130
• Date: 01 January 2025
• Published date: 01 January 2025
• Author: Rebecca Myshrall
• Subject Matter: Derecho Civil

Trump and NATO: Will NATO Survive Under a

Second Trump Administration?

Rebecca Myshrall*

ABSTRACT

When President Trump entered off‌ice in 2017, he had a critical stance toward

the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) that was perhaps unprece-

dented among American presidents since NATO’s formation in 1949. His com-

plaints centered around the concern that the U.S.’s European allies within

NATO were not f‌inancially contributing their fair share to the organization.

However, given how increasingly uncertain the global environment is, NATO

remains relevant. With that said, a second Trump administration creates ques-

tions about the political consequences it will have on the Alliance. Given this

uncertainty, this paper summarizes the historical context of NATO’s formation

and the evolution of U.S. perspectives on it. It then documents President

Trump’s historical animosity towards NATO, particularly his complaint about

the lacking f‌inancial contributions of European allies, and how that animosity

remains in his rhetoric today. Ultimately, in analyzing the f‌irst Trump

Administration’s relationship with NATO and his continuing NATO critiques

made on the 2024 campaign trail, this paper concludes that another Trump

Administration is not an existential threat to NATO. Rather, the critical rhetoric

will likely push NATO countries to increase their defense spending and burden-

sharing. In order to bolster the future of transatlantic relations, this paper con-

cludes by recommending how European allies can address Trump-like concerns

by increasing their f‌inancial and defense contributions and recommending pol-

icy advisors Trump’s second Administration should consider who would be

qualif‌ied and committed to maintaining a robust transatlantic Alliance.

However, the harsh rhetoric may decrease European allies’ trust in the United

States, creating cracks in NATO’s foundation that could spread in due course.

INTRODUCTION

The relationship between President Donald J. Trump and the North Atlantic

Treaty Organization (“NATO,” “the Alliance,” or “the Treaty”) represents a piv-

otal development in transatlantic relations, marked by a departure from tradi-

tional U.S. foreign policy norms. President Trump’s critical stance toward NATO

* Rebecca Myshrall is a third-year evening student at Georgetown University Law Center and a full-

time consultant working in national security. Rebecca graduated with a Master of Arts in Government

from the Johns Hopkins University and with a Bachelor of Arts in Psychology from Southern Adventist

University and is originally from Maine. © 2025, Rebecca Myshrall. I would like to thank Professor

David Koplow for his expert advice that helped shape this article.

103

and his demands for increased defense spending from European allies created sig-

nif‌icant tension within the Alliance. This paper examines the historical context of

NATO’s formation, the evolution of U.S. and European perspectives on defense

contributions, and President Trump’s distinct approach to NATO during his pres-

idency. It also analyzes the potential consequences of a second Trump term, par-

ticularly how his policies could further alter the dynamics within NATO. Finally,

the paper offers strategic recommendations for European leaders to reduce de-

pendency on U.S. military power and enhance their defense capabilities. In doing

so, this paper considers how President Trump and his advisors should navigate

future NATO relations to maintain the Alliance’s stability and relevance in an

increasingly uncertain global environment.

NATO: THE RELEVANT HISTORY

The United States and eleven other Western nations founded NATO in 1949 as

an attempt to restrain the rise of communism.

1

Medea Benjamin, Trump Was Right: NATO Should be Obsolete, NEWSTEXT (Dec. 2, 2019),

https://perma.cc/UND2-BQCU.

However, this attempt is only part

of the NATO origin story. The Treaty’s creation was part of a broader endeavor

to encourage European political integration, block the revival of nationalist mili-

tarism in Europe through a strong North American presence on the continent, and

dissuade Soviet expansion.

2

A Short History of NATO, N. ATL. TREATY ORG. (June 3, 2022), https://perma.cc/4VA6-QULL.

The Treaty was the f‌irst peacetime military alliance

the United States entered outside the Western Hemisphere.

3

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), U.S. DEP’T OF STATE: OFF. OF THE HISTORIAN

(1949), https://perma.cc/4XF4-8R5C.

European nations struggled to preserve security and rebuild their economies af-

ter the destruction of the Second World War.

4

These vulnerabilities required sup-

port against incursions from the Soviet Union or a resurgent Germany and an

enormous amount of aid to re-establish industries and produce food for the war-

torn countries.

5

The United States recognized a safe, economically strong, and

integrated Europe as necessary to prevent the spread of communism across the

continent.

6

Therefore, Secretary of State George Marshall recommended provid-

ing large-scale economic aid to Europe.

7

This proposal led to the European

Recovery Program, or the Marshall Plan.

8

This plan aided European monetary

integration and bolstered shared cooperation and interests between the United

States and Europe.

9

Furthermore, between 1947 and 1948, several events led Western European

nations to fear for their political and physical security and the United States to

become more closely entrenched in European affairs.

10

Due to tensions in Turkey

1.

2.

3.

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5. Id.

6. Id.

7. Id.

8. Id.

9. Id.

10. Id.

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