Trends in African Migration to Europe: Drivers Beyond Economic Motivations

• Date: 01 September 2019
• Published date: 01 September 2019
• DOI: 10.1177/0022002718823907
• Subject Matter: Articles

Article

Trends in African

Migration to Europe:

Drivers Beyond

Economic Motivations

Jose

´-Manuel Gime

´nez-Go

´mez

1

, Yabibal M. Walle

2

,

and Yitagesu Zewdu Zergawu

1

Abstract

The current migration and refugee crisis in Europe requires an understanding of the

different migration drivers beyond the well-known economic determinants. In this

article, we view migration from a broader human security perspective and analyze

the determinants of regular and asylum seeker migration flows from Africa to

Europe for the period 1990 to 2014. Our results show that, in addition to economic

determinants, a combination of push and pull factors influences migration decisions

of individuals. In particular, rising political persecution, human rights violations,

ethnic tensions, political instability, and civil conflicts in African source countries are

all significantly associated with increased migration flows into European destination

countries. Therefore, our results underscore the need for the European Union and

European countries to collaborate with the source countries, not only in terms of

supporting economic development in the source countries but also in promoting

human security: human rights, democracy, peace, and social stability.

Keywords

international migration, asylumseeker,refugeecrisis,humansecurity,Poisson

pseudomaximum likelihood

1

Dep. Economia—CREIP, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, Spain

2

Department of Economics, Georg-August-Universita

¨tGo

¨ttingen, Go

¨ttingen, Germany

Corresponding Author:

Jose

´-Manuel Gime

´nez-Go

´mez, Dep. Economia—CREIP, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Av. Universitat,

1, Tarragona 432014, Spain.

Email: josemanuel.gimenez@urv.cat

Journal of Conflict Resolution

2019, Vol. 63(8) 1797-1831

ªThe Author(s) 2019

Article reuse guidelines:

sagepub.com/journals-permissions

DOI: 10.1177/0022002718823907

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Introduction

Migration and the refugee crisis are high on the policy agendas of European coun-

tries, from economic, security, and social standpoints. In the current wave of migra-

tion, Europe is witnessing a mixed-migration phenomenon where a large number of

economic migrants are joining asylum seekers in their journey to reach the European

continent (Bertoli, Bru

¨cker, and Moraga 2013; Park 2015). Each year hundreds of

thousands of immigrants flow into Europe mainly from Africa, the Middle East, and

South Asia.

1

With such a large number of migration inflows, European countries are

said to have reached a breaking point in their ability to meet the European Union

(EU) standards for receiving immigrants and facilitating asylum applications

(Banulescu-Bogdan and Fratzke 2015). Furthermore, the present-day migrant influx

has imposed internal “political fatigue,” with nationalist parties gaining momentum

in many EU member states and with security tensions rising due to terrorist-linked

incidents in some countries (Park 2015). On the other hand, thousands of people

perish every year while attempting to cross the Mediterranean Sea (Telschow 2014).

These events have created mounting pressure on European governments, at least by

groups supporting human rights, to work and spend more on rescue missions to

enable acceptance of a more substantial number of immigrants. Therefore, migration

is now a prominent feature in the economic, social, and political landscape of

European countries (Kerr and Kerr 2011).

In response to these tense situations, European governments are actively

working to cut the flows of migrants and asylum seekers across the Mediterra-

nean sea in partnership with African governments (Garcia Andrade and Martin

2015). Important initiatives in this regard include the “EU-Africa Declaration on

Migration and Mobility” of 2014 in which European and African governments

pledge to combat human trafficking, and to facilitate the return and the read-

mission of migrants whose asylum applications have been refused (https://au.int/

sites/default/files/pages/32899-file-5._the_eu_africa_declaration_on_migration_

and_mobilty_2014.pdf). This declaration also emphasizes the importance of

addressing the root causes of irregular migration such as by providing employ-

ment opportunities for the youth at regional level. In the same year, the so-

called Khartoum Process and Rabat Process were established with a special

focus on preventing and fighting migrant smuggling and human trafficking in

the Horn of Africa and Central, Western, and Northern Africa, respectively. In

November 2015, the Valletta Summit brought together the largest number of

African and European heads of states and governments and concluded with the

EU setting up an Emergency Trust Fund to promote development in Africa, in

return for African countries to help European countries in the crisis (http://www.

consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/international-summit/2015/11/11-12/). In June

2016, the EU establishes a wide-ranging Migration Partnership Framework

(MPF), which aims to coordinate collaborations with African and other third

country governments (European Commission 2016).

1798 Journal of Conflict Resolution 63(8)

These intensified cooperations of the EU with African governments, includ-

ing those that are authoritarian and which are accused of severe human rights

violations and political persecution, have caused significant controversy. For

instance, critics argue that by basing development aid and foreign relations on

countries agreement to cooperate with EU migration control objectives, the EU

is making a significant policy change away from putting human rights as a

central point of EU foreign policy (Castillejo 2017; Human Rights Watch

2018; Oette and Babiker 2017).

2

A number of factors might be behind the EU’s apparent policy shift away from its

long-held policy of defending human rights in Africa toward stronger border control

and quicker returns of “illegal” migrants. Obviously, one of the reasons that the large

number of migrant flows might have forc ed the EU to prioritize the short-term

objective of reducing the number of immigrants above its principle of defending

human rights. Moreover, it seems that the EU considers that economic factors, rather

than human rights violations, ethnic tensions, and civil conflicts, are key reasons for

the African migration flows to Europe. Indeed, for instance, the “migration

compact”—an important contribution to the MPF document by the Italian govern-

ment—explicitly state that while migrant flows through the Eastern Mediterranean

route include both refugees and economic migrants, “flows through the Central/

Western Mediterranean route are composed mainly by economic migrants” (Italian

Government 2016, 1).

Despite the seemingly divergent views held by European governments and

groups supporting human rights on the role of human security factors in the recent

migration flows from Africa to Europe, there is surprisingly little empirical evidence

to substantiate either of these stances. While a few extant studies have examined

determinants of African migration flows, they have however either focused exclu-

sively on intra-Africa n migration flows or studi ed international migr ation from

Africa together with intra-African flows. For instance, investigating trends of migra-

tion flows in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries for the period 1965 to 2005,

Naude´ (2010) finds that armed conflict and lack of job opportunities are the most

important determinants. However, he employs net migration flows data, which are

obtained as the difference between emigration and immigration per 1,000 inhabi-

tants. Consequently, Naude´ ( 2010) does not examine determinants of bilateral

migration flows from a given sending African country to specific host countries.

Moreover, the net migration data include intra-African migration, which is the

most prevalent form of African migration (Lucas 2015). As a result, it is unclear to

what extent his findings could be used to explain trends in migration flows from

Africa to Europe. Similarly, Ruyssen and Rayp (2014) examine intraregional

migration in SSA during the period 1980 to 2000. However, they do not consider

migration flows from Africa to Europe. Lucas (2015) provides an extensive liter-

ature survey and empirical study on the causes, patterns, and consequences of

migrationinAfrica.Inparticular,byestimatinga gravity model of African migra-

tion flows to 220 states and territories worldwide (including African states), he

Gime

´nez-Go

´mez et al. 1799