TRENDS: Diploma divide: Educational attainment and the realignment of the American electorate

• Published date: 01 June 2022
• DOI: 10.1177/10659129221079862
• Author: Joshua N Zingher
• Date: 01 June 2022
• Subject Matter: Articles

Article

Political Research Quarterly

2022, Vol. 75(2) 263–277

© The Author(s) 2022

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DOI: 10.1177/10659129221079862

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TRENDS: Diploma divide: Educational

attainment and the realignment of the

American electorate

Joshua N Zingher

1



Abstract

The divide between college graduates and non-college graduates is an increasingly important political cleavage. In this

paper, I document the rise of the diploma divide on the micro and macro levels. First, I use ANES and CES data to assess

the relationships between educational attainment, partisanship, and vote choice. I f‌ind that post-2000, educational

attainment is an increasingly strong predictor of partisanship and, in turn, vote choice. I demonstrate that differences in

racial and culture war attitudes between college graduates and non-graduates drive the diploma divide. I then show that

the increasing salience of education at the individual level has reshaped the macro-level political alignment. Between 2000

and 2020, the percentage of a county’s population with a BA is one of the strongest predictors of changes in vote share,

with highly educated counties becoming more Democratic and less educated counties becoming more Republican.

Finally, I demonstrate that county-level educational context conditions the effect of degree-holding on indivi dual-level

behavior. Having a college education is a stronger predictor of Democratic partisanship in counties where a larger

proportion of the population holds a college degree. Overall, these results demonstrate the diploma divide is one of the

dominant political cleavages in contemporary American politics.

Keywords

diploma divide, partisanship, vote choice, education, realignment, polarization

Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 presidential elections is

often framed as a return to normalcy. Biden, the longtime

Senator, vice-president to Barack Obama, and committed

institutionalist, defeated the incumbent president, populist

billionaire Donald Trump in a contentious election.

1

While Biden might embody a “normal politician,”Biden’s

path to victory was anything but ordinary. Many observers

thought Biden was a viable candidate because he would

appeal to working-class Whites and ethnic and racial

minorities. However, Biden only marginally improved

upon the Democrats’previous performances among the

White working-class and even lost ground among some

ethnic and racial minority groups—Latinos in particular.

Perhaps unexpectedly, Biden exhibited considerable

strength among professional class Whites. Biden won

mainly because he improved upon Hillary Clinton’smar-

gins in a wide range of highly educated suburban areas,

both in traditionally blue and traditionally red states.

It was once common wisdom that the GOP was the

party of aff‌luent, White college graduates (Stonecash

2000, 101–107). Flanigan and Zingale’s (1998, 90)

classic political behavior text states, “Typically, lower-

status people, those with less education, those with low

incomes, recently immigrated ethnic groups, racial mi-

norities, and Catholics are more likely to vote Democratic.

Higher status people, the college-educated, those with

high incomes, whites of northern European stock, and

Protestants are more likely to vote Republican.”Repub-

licans dominated America’s suburban areas while the

Democrats were strong in urban cores and many rural

areas. However, these stereotypes are badly outdated.

Biden’s strength in many of the nation’s most well-to-do

suburban areas combined with the Democratic Party’s

Department of Political Science and Geography, Old Dominion

University, Norfolk, VA, USA

Corresponding Author:

Joshua N Zingher, Department of Political Science and Geography, Old

Dominion University, 7016 Batten Arts & Letters, Norfolk, VA 23529,

USA.

Email: jzingher@odu.edu