Travel and Recreation Outlook 2000: Focusing on Demographics.

• Author: Nickerson, Norma P.

The biggest influence on domestic and international travel to and within Montana is the economic condition of the area, other states, and foreign countries. The second largest influence is regional demographic characteristics. This article explores variables that influence Montana's travel industry.

U.S. economic conditions determine the amount, type, and destination of travel by Americans. Currently, the United States is experiencing the lowest unemployment in 30 years. Inflation is low, growth in personal consumption spending will most likely continue, and real disposable income is expected to grow rapidly again in 2000 just as it has in the past few years. All these indicators show that the United States is a country where people have the money for luxury items such as travel. In these good economic times, Americans are traveling more, are traveling more by plane than in the past, and they are traveling to destinations farther away.

While the strength of an economy predicts the amount of travel, consumer demographics determine travel behavior. For example, a large portion of visitors traveling to Montana come from the fastest growing states--Washington, California, and Idaho (Figure 1). These states' growth is partly due to the increasing number of Hispanic and Asian residents, who will potentially change the visitor characteristics of Montana nonresidents (Figure 2).

A change in the make-up and life-stage of U.S. households will have a major impact on the travel industry. The largest growth in the next 10 years--an increase of about 27 percent--will occur in the 55 and over age group. The 55-65 age cohort has time and money to spend. Their employment situation allows more vacation time, and their income is at its highest. We can expect increases in RV vacations, "once-in-a-lifetime" vacations, and more frequent, shorter vacations. The 65-80 age group has the time, the health, and the desire to travel during all seasons of the year, reducing the seasonal effect of the younger traveling public.

In the next 10 years, couples without children at home will represent the highest percent of households. Sixty percent of married couples will have no children at home, and an additional 25 percent of households will be people living alone. These households will change the travel scenes from family outings to couples traveling without children. Additionally, more people will be traveling with groups of friends either in private vehicles or through...