Travel and Recreation Outlook 2001.

• Author: Dillon, Thale
• Position: Statistical Data Included

Year 2000 in Review

In 1999, the Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research predicted that nonresident visitation to Montana would increase by 2 percent in 2000. However, the year 2000 proved to be full of surprises that combined to influence travel to Montana in a negative way. Preliminary data shows a half of 1 percent decrease in nonresident visitation. This decrease may seem disappointing in relation to the predicted increase, but the end result could have been much worse given the occurrences of the past year. All told, Montana hosted nearly 9.4 million visitors in 2000 (Figure 1), visitors and they spent a total of $1.64 billion in the state economy.

A number of economic factors shaped the year 2000, in turn influencing travel to Montana. Extremely low unemployment levels increased the amount of disposable income available to consumers. Along with the active stock market and the low inflation rates, consumer confidence was boosted, stimulating spending. Unfortunately for Montana, strong national economic conditions generally encourage Americans to take more exotic vacations, perhaps taking advantage of the strong dollar and favorable exchange rates to travel internationally. Domestic travel, such as a trip to Montana, is something that can be saved for a later time when financial conditions are tighter.

According to national data, the high gasoline prices experienced last summer had some impact on travel. One in five travel groups altered their plans as a result of the price hike. Of these, 45 percent either shortened the duration of their trip or shortened the distance of their trip. Only 1 percent of travelers nationwide chose to cancel their trip altogether. Still, Montana is a car-and-gasoline intensive state to visit, and it is reasonable to assume that some of the observed decreases in summer visitation were due to high gas prices.

The 2000 fire season turned out to have less of an impact on visitation than most expected. This is not to say that nobody suffered from it -- many people were devastated. However, on a statewide level, the impacts were not as large as some had feared. August and September, the two peak fire months, saw visitation decreases of 3 and 5 percent, respectively. According to Travel Montana, bed tax collections were up 4 percent in 2000, while Smith Travel Research reports a 2 percent increase in occupancy rates between 1999 and 2000.

2001 Outlook

Despite last year's decline, Montana can expect...