Transformation of international migrants in head wind: Evidence from Tajikistan in the 2010s

• Published date: 01 February 2023
• Author: Satoshi Shimizutani,Eiji Yamada
• Date: 01 February 2023
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12933

REGULAR ARTICLE

Transformation of international migrants

in head wind: Evidence from Tajikistan

in the 2010s

Satoshi Shimizutani | Eiji Yamada

JICA Ogata Sadako Research Institute for

Peace and Development, Tokyo, Japan

Correspondence

Satoshi Shimizutani, JICA Ogata Sadako

Research Institute for Peace and

Development, 10-5 Ichigaya

Honmuracho, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo

162-8433, Japan.

Email: shimizutani.satoshi@jica.go.jp

Funding information

the World Bank

Abstract

Tajikistan has relied on remittances by international

migrants that have exceeded a quarter of annual GDP

to date, despite a series of exogenous adverse events in

the mid-2010s. We use a nationally representative

panel dataset collected in 2013 and 2018 to explore the

socio-economic characteristics of households with

international migrants and migrants themselves. We

provide several new findings. First, the prevalence of

households with international migrants is 40%, with a

substantial transition in migrant status during the

research period. Second, households with international

migrants are not poor, have Russian-speaking mem-

bers, and are supported by an intense migration net-

work. Third, younger, single, and more educated males

comprise most of Tajikistan's international migrants.

Fourth, households without Russian-speaking mem-

bers or migration networks in 2013 had begun to send

international migrants by 2018, while households in

the richest group had exited from migration, suggesting

s transition of the socio-economic composition of

migrant-sending households during the mid-2010s.

Received: 18 February 2022 Revised: 13 August 2022 Accepted: 13 August 2022

DOI: 10.1111/rode.12933

This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits

use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or

adaptations are made.

© 2022 The Authors. Review of Development Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Rev Dev Econ. 2023;27:525–549. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/rode 525

KEYWORDS

migration, remittance, socio-economic characteristics, social

networks, Tajikistan

JEL CLASSIFICATION

F22, F24, O12, O15

1|INTRODUCTION

In recent years, the number of international migrants has been increasing and comprises 3% of

the total population, and remittance inflows to developing countries have become increasingly

important as the largest external financial source. The amount of remittance inflows to low-

and middle-income countries has increased to their largest level in history (World Bank, 2020).

However, the impact of international migration may vary between countries of different eco-

nomic size. In some smaller countries, remittance inflows by international migrants predomi-

nate, with a high percentage of remittance inflows relative to gross domestic product (GDP).

1

At the household level, the process of deciding to migrate is complex and self-selective, and

households with international migrants are nonrandom (McKenzie et al., 2010), which has

been less studied in some of those heavily remittance-dependent countries.

This empirical study focuses on the socioeconomic characteristics of households with inter-

national migrants and migrants themselves in Tajikistan during the 2010s. Tajikistan in the

2010s is a particularly important case for studying the socioeconomic characteristics of interna-

tional migrants because the country witnessed a high and stable remittance inflow equivalent

to a quarter of GDP, despite a series of turbulent external events such as macroeconomic reces-

sion and the introduction of a tighter migration policy in Russia, the destination for nearly

100% of Tajik migrants (JICA-RI, 2020). Understanding the socioeconomic characteristics of

international migrants in this period has relevance for designing migration policies as well as

arguing supportive strategies to promote domestic employment and social mobility. We focus

primarily on discussing the general association between migration status and the characteristics

of households by conducting a cross-sectional analysis. To complement the analysis on associa-

tion, we also attempt to examine the determinants by panel analysis.

The literature has revealed that international migration is closely associated with socioeco-

nomic factors such as educational attainment, household financial resources, and migration

networks (see the following section). The majority of these studies have examined the determi-

nants of migration, relying on cross-sectional data. In contrast, we provide evidence on (possi-

ble) transformations of characteristics of migrants across multiple time points, allowing the

exploration of changes over time. This approach has not often been utilized in previous studies.

Changes in the socioeconomic status of migrants have important policy implications since

remittance plays an essential role in poverty reduction. They also have implications for invest-

ments in education and health, and thus, who migrates matters for source countries.

This paper utilizes a rich household-level panel data set, collected nationwide in 2013 and

2018 in Tajikistan, to reveal socioeconomic factors of international migrants. We provide new

evidence to develop a comprehensive picture of international migration in Asia. Our main find-

ing is that there are substantial transitions (entry and exit) in migration status between 2013

and 2018 while the socioeconomic characteristics remain the same. We confirm that the

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