TRACKING THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON TOURISM: The Travel Industry Struggles to Rebound in Montana.

• Author: Sage, Jeremy
• Position: Cover story

2020 was poised to be a good year for tourism in Montana. The industry came off a banner year in 2019, which garnered $3.75 billion from 12.6 million visitors--2.2% more visitors than 2018. As the year began, unemployment rates were at all-time lows; rates hovering around 3.5 percent, consumer sentiment was the highest it had been since 2005, and the economy was continuing its record months of expansion. In preparing for the summer peak travel season --about half of all visitors arrive between July and September--the biggest worry seemed to be the potential severity of the fire season. But 2020 has proved to be anything but a normal year.

The University of Montana's Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research (ITRR) routinely monitors the tourism and recreation industries of Montana. They largely do this via on the ground surveyors stationed throughout the state. These efforts result in the ability to provide estimates of the number of visitors to the state, how much they spend, and how that spending impacts the state's economy.

Recognizing a massive upheaval was on the horizon for tourism in Montana, and the impending inability to interact with visitors face-to-face, ITRR began a series of secondary information surveys. Its purpose was to gauge the potential impacts of the pandemic to Montana's tourism industry, as felt by travelers and businesses. The series showed how concerns over health and the economy impacted the tourism industry, as the virus spread and governmental actions took hold.

The Traveler

March 11-15

The first round of surveys took place just as the first identified cases were being reported in the state. At the time, 59% of the 1,460 non-Montana resident respondents indicated they were at least somewhat concerned about their own health. Meanwhile, a larger portion (72%) indicated concerns for the health of their community. While these were moderately high levels of concern, they were small compared to the 88% who indicated concern over the economy. Forty percent indicated they were extremely concerned and 43% strongly agreed with the sentiment that the outbreak could increase the likelihood of a recession. However, likely attributable to the lack of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the state, Montanans were less likely to be concerned about their own health. Only 50% voiced concern about their own health and 66% for the health of their community.

Concerns about both one's own health and the future health of the economy were...