Towards a New Normalcy?

• Author: Cox, Robert
• Position: Impact of coronavirus crisis

Title: Towards a New Normalcy?

Text:

Editor's Note: American Diplomacy Journal asked several foreign policy commentators to address the significance of growing chaos in many parts of the world, as failed and failing states are increasingly unable to perform the fundamental functions of the sovereign nation-state. This is one of five articles looking at those concerns.

"The current coronavirus crisis emphasizes the need for the European Union to devote more effort to anticipatory governance, notably through analysis of medium- and long-term global trends, as well as structured contingency planning and the stress-testing of existing and future policies."--European Parliament study, April 2021

Europe is the spiritual home of anarchism. But it will argue that failed states are a third world phenomenon, while conveniently forgetting that such failure is often, or at least partly, a consequence of its colonial rule. Today's European Union (EU) is not plagued by anarchy nor by outright failure. But its growth pains, and now the COVID pandemic, have sharpened its strains of governance. There are areas of Europe where anarchy and failure are real and the EU is either unwilling or unable to act in mitigation. A new US administration, seeking fresh partnership with Europe, has a vested interest in looking at what anarchy and failure might do to its European partners. This essay looks too at Europe's immediate neighbourhood where state failure--and failed European response--are rife. Politics starts at home. So let's first look at that. President Biden during his June tour of Europe will certainly have done so and wondered how politically solid, predictable and reliable the re-discovered European partners are.

Once Upon a Time

Christmas 2019. Europe's political scene looked smugly self-satisfied. Shared animosity towards President Trump helped. The economy sailed along. Even Brexit looked controllable. Inequalities seemed tolerable. Some debated prospects for a more balanced and human capitalism. Chancellor Merkel surfed on the height of her reign. President Macron had the insurrectionist threat of the gilets jaunes largely behind him. Stock markets were firm. Then the bug struck.

Scorn now condemned governments' unpreparedness, their feeble efforts to cope, their panic matching that of their citizens as deadly statistics mounted. Dreams of ultimate return to normalcy gave way to speculation about some "new normalcy". Society split into rival camps of the cautiously prudent and returners to normal life. Speculation about vaccine development lurched between despondency and euphoria. Was society coming apart?

Towards a New Normalcy...

Pundits on both sides of the Atlantic--more particularly in Europe perhaps--enjoy speculating about what a post-pandemic society and polity will look like: new identity and purpose of cities; more...